The reverse seems to be the case
As the SNP begins its annual conference in Aberdeen today, it will do so in the knowledge that there has been no discernible ‘Corbyn bounce’ north of the border.
According to new polling out today, Labour’s standing in Scotland has actually fallen, with 21 per cent of those stating a voting preference supporting Labour in the constituency vote for the Scottish Parliament. This is down from 22 per cent the last time YouGov conducted such polling in September.
The SNP remain steady on 51 per cent, 30 percentage points ahead of Labour. The Conservatives are on 19 per cent (up one point), the Lib Dems are on 5 per cent (up from 4 per cent in September). Other parties stand on 4 per cent.
Asked how they would vote on the regional list section of next year’s elections to Holyrood, 45 per cent said the SNP, 20 per cent said Labour and 19 per cent said the Conservatives. The Lib Dems are on 5 per cent and the Greens on 6 per cent.
With Nicola Sturgeon now determined not to push for a second independence referendum imminently, excluding those who did not know or would not say, 48 per cent of those polled supported independence compared to 52 per cent who opposed it.
Today’s results should make Labour HQ sit up and pay attention. The expectation had been that Jeremy Corbyn would somehow revive Labour’s fortunes, yet the reverse seems to be the case, with this poll matching the findings of the data published by TNS last week.
In a difficult assessment for Labour, editor-in-chief of YouGov Freddie Sayers notes:
“The reality is that the appeal of the SNP in Scotland is much broader than simply anti-austerity. It is a nationalist party, currently buoyed by an atmosphere of successful rebellion against the UK establishment.
“In the eyes of Scottish voters, Mr Corbyn is still a remote Westminster figure, at the head of a party that has lost its covenant with Scottish voters. Today’s figures reveal the extent of the challenge ahead of him if he hopes to get a message through that will make a difference north of the border. Whatever that message is, it hasn’t been heard yet.”
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor at Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter
28 Responses to “Second poll shows no Corbyn bounce in Scotland”
Bill Cruickshank
Not sure if Ed lives in Scotland but there is no prospect of a Labour revival in Scotland. In all my 40+ years of being an SNP activist I have never know such hatred for the Labour Party. If I had a Fiver for every time I have heard ‘Labour slept with the Tories during the #Indyref’ I would be a millionaire.
RB2
Anyone surprised by this is an idiot. Voters who went to snp stay there, because their decision had nothing to do with Labour being insufficiently left wing. Some additional Labour voters leave, because they don’t think much of Corbyn, just as English voters don’t. All very predictable.
Faerieson
Is this really the case, or is the issue perhaps more complex than it is being presented? During the recent election Scottish voters appeared to have abandoned the other parties in droves, so maybe they’re still riding high on having established a more determined and separate identity. The SNP are still very buoyant! Maybe Scottish voters can see that Labour still has its share of soft Tory characters, who appear to favour current austerity over any real alternative. If one follows what is happening in the UK, Europe, and even Transatlantically, it is easy to get the impression that there is a bigger and more worrying trend afoot. Left Foot Forward itself has hardly been true to its stated aims, over the election of Mr Corbyn.
Recognise the growing and ongoing neo-liberal coup, recognise where it is best rejected, recognise those who still covertly support its thrust, and then it is possible to begin to see the immense scale of the problem. And the problem is not really Mr Corbyn, is it LFF?
jj
How come we can comment on this article, but the LFF article on ethnic inequalities in the jobs market has closed its comments section?!
Richard MacKinnon
Labour are in their death throes in Scotland. Next years Scottish parliament elections will be the final nail in the coffin and then the following years council elections will be the burial. Accept it. Scotland no longer belongs to Labour.
The SNP lost the referendum and now its pay back time. Labour was on the wrong side. They pay for their treachery. And understand this, that is how Labour are seen. They aligned with the Torys rather than stick up for Scotland. Instructed by London Labour to stick the knife in to their fellow countrymen.
Even No voters want to kick Labour. Why? because Scots are now politically mature. Scots can see right through Labours pseudo norff London intellectuals and we recognise a fake when we see one. Its the best show in town. All this hand wringing by Jeremy over how to address the Saxe Coburgs Should he or shouldn’t he doff the cap? FFS is it any wonder we’re laughing.
Corbyn and Labour are never going to see a bounce in Scotland again. Tthere is a school of thought that argues that there must be a bounce if a tall enough building can be found.