Reform to win less seats than Labour or Conservatives in bombshell poll
The mega poll shows a sharp decline in support for Reform over the last year
A new mega poll has projected that if an election were held tomorrow, there would be a hung parliament with Labour winning the most seats, followed by the Tories and Reform in third place.
The poll puts Labour on 241 seats, down from the 411 the party won in the 2024 election and 85 seats short of the 326 required for an overall majority.
The figures mark a significant recovery for Labour compared to this time last year, when a YouGov poll indicated that Keir Starmer’s Labour was leading in just 144 seats.
It does however mean Labour would have to form a coalition with other parties, such as the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens.
The projection puts the Lib Dems on track to win 71 seats, the SNP on 40, Plaid Cymru on 15, and the Greens on nine.
In a blow to Nigel Farage, the poll shows a sharp decline in support for Reform over the last year.
The median estimate of today’s Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) poll shows Nigel Farage’s party winning in 123 constituencies.
In last year’s MRP, YouGov projected that Reform would win 311 seats, putting the party in first place and 15 seats shy of a majority.
The poll puts the Conservatives in second place on 130 seats, meaning that even if Kemi Badenoch’s party joined forces with Reform, the parties would still be 73 seats short of a majority.
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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