Labour tops two thirds of polls carried out since Andy Burnham became Labour leader
Reform is ahead in the remaining third
The so-called ‘Burnham bounce’ seems to be continuing.
Since Andy Burnham took over from Keir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party, 18 opinion polls have been carried out looking at the nation’s voting intention.
Labour has been in first or joint-first place in 12 of them – that’s two thirds of all the polls conducted.
Labour has an outright lead in seven of those 12, and is tied with Reform in five of them. The six polls all have Reform in first place.
The scale of Labour’s lead in the polls in which the party is ahead varies significantly. The highest is with BMG Research (five points) and the second highest is with Opinium (4 points).
While none of these polls – if borne out in an actual general election – would lead to a substantial majority, they are nonetheless good news for Labour.
Prior to Keir Starmer announcing his resignation as Labour leader, the party had only one poll in the whole of 2026.
However, whether Burnham can maintain this strength of polling remains to be seen – either it is indicative of a long-term trend or of a short-lived honeymoon.
The full list of polls carried out since Burnham became Labour leader are below.
| Dates | Polling firm | Labour | Tory | Reform | Lib Dem | Green |
| 5 Aug | Find Out Now | 24% | 18% | 24% | 11% | 14% |
| 2–3 Aug | YouGov | 22% | 19% | 23% | 12% | 13% |
| 1–3 Aug | JL Partners | 27% | 21% | 25% | 12% | 10% |
| 29 Jul – 2 Aug | More in Common | 27% | 22% | 24% | 10% | 9% |
| 29–31 Jul | Opinium | 27% | 17% | 23% | 12% | 12% |
| 28–30 Jul | BMG Research | 28% | 20% | 23% | 10% | 10% |
| 25–30 Jul | Convergent Opinion | 26% | 21% | 23% | 11% | 10% |
| 29 Aug | Find Out Now | 23% | 19% | 23% | 11% | 14% |
| 26–27 Jul | YouGov | 22% | 21% | 22% | 11% | 13% |
| 25–27 Jul | Survation | 26% | 21% | 24% | 10% | 10% |
| 24–27 Jul | More in Common | 28% | 22% | 24% | 12% | 8% |
| 24–27 Jul | Deltapoll | 27% | 19% | 27% | 8% | 10% |
| 22–24 Jul | Survation | 25% | 19% | 26% | 10% | 8% |
| 22–23 Jul | YouGov | 21% | 20% | 23% | 14% | 13% |
| 22 Jul | Find Out Now | 22% | 19% | 24% | 10% | 14% |
| 21–22 Jul | More in Common | 24% | 22% | 26% | 11% | 11% |
| 19–20 Jul | YouGov | 20% | 21% | 23% | 12% | 14% |
| 17–20 Jul | Deltapoll | 28% | 18% | 28% | 10% | 10% |
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
Image credit: Simon Dawson / Number 10 – Creative Commons
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