Two new Makerfield polls put Andy Burnham ahead of Reform
Burnham is on track to win the Makerfield by-election as he enters the final week of the campaign
A further two polls of voting intentions ahead of the Makerfield by-election this Thursday put the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester ahead of Reform UK.
One poll gives Andy Burnham a 12-point lead over Reform, while another puts him five points ahead of Nigel Farage’s party.
One survey carried out by pollster Convergent predicted a decisive win for Burnham.
The poll put support for Labour at 49%, with Reform on 37%, and the Greens and Restore Britain on 5%.
Another poll conducted by Opinium for Forward Democracy last week showed a five-point lead for Burnham, who polled at 46%, with Reform’s Robert Kenyon on 41%.
The survey, which polled 543 voters, puts Rupert Lowe’s hard-right party Restore Britain on 6%, the Greens on 2% and the Lib Dems on 1%.
However, if a general election were held tomorrow, Reform would lead Labour in Makerfield by around seven points, on 33%.
Therefore, Burnham’s by-election lead represents a personal-vote swing of roughly 12 points, without which, Labour would be on course to lose the seat.
Tom de Grunwald, Founder of Forward Democracy, said: “The message in Makerfield is stark. The race is very close and every vote will count. For Green and Liberal Democrat supporters, the maths is clear: Andy Burnham is the only candidate who can stop Reform.
“Andy Burnham is exactly the kind of candidate this moment calls for. He’s been one of the most consistent and outspoken advocates for a fairer and more proportional voting system, which would make this kind of messy tactical calculus unnecessary.”
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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