Labour in first place in eight consecutive polls

The so-called ‘Burnham bounce’ is continuing to show up in the opinion polls, and it hasn’t yet shown any sign of abating.

Labour has been in first place or joint-first place in the last eight opinion polls published by major polling firms.

The polls in question all had their fieldwork conducted since 24 July, following Andy Burnham becoming prime minister.

In every one of the eight polls, Reform are in second or in joint-first place. Labour’s lead is highest with BMG (five points) and Opinium (four points). Find Out Now, YouGov and Deltapoll all have Labour and Reform tied.

These polls are a massive turnaround in Labour’s position with the electorate. The last time Labour led in eight consecutive polls was almost two years ago October 2024. Most polls have had Reform in first place since then.

Since Burnham became prime minister, Reform have fallen around three points in the polls. The Lib Dems and the Greens have also fallen around one to two points each.

Despite the poll bounce, the scale of Labour’s lead at the moment means that it is unlikely Labour would win a substantial majority were a general election held now.

The BMG poll that has Labour with a five point lead would – according to Electoral Calculus’ prediction calculator – leave Labour seven seats short of an overall majority in the House of Commons.

The Opinion poll that has Labour with a four point lead – according to the same calculator – put Labour 23 seats short of a majority.

Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward

Image credit: Simon Dawson / Number 10 – Creative Commons