EXCLUSIVE: How small increases in Remainer turnout could swing the EU election

The pro-Remain Best for Britain campaign has claimed that just a small increase in Remainers turning out could change the course of the European elections in England.

“Just small increases in turnout among those opposed to a hard Brexit could change the course of key areas,” said Best for Britain’s CEO Naomi Smith.

“It’s vital that as many people get out to vote as possible. Every vote will have extraordinary significance come these elections,” she added.

The group’s analysis has been shared with Foot Forward and outlines what swing would be needed so that the hard Brexit parties (Tory, UKIP, Brexit Party) miss out on European Parliament seats.

In the North-West, a 5% increase in turnout among eligible voters who would vote for anti-hard Brexit parties would see the Tories miss out on a seat at the Liberal Democrats’ expense. This equals around 20,000 new voters.

In the South-East, a 6% increase in this kind of turnout would see Farage’s Brexit Party miss out – again at the Lib Dem’s expense. This is equivalent to 70,000 new voters.

In the South-West, a 5% increase would see the Brexit Party miss out and the Liberal Democrats gain. This would need around 35,000 new voters.

The group also outlined the kind of swings from the hard-Brexit parties to Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Greens that are needed.

Best for Britain said the swings needed would be 4% in the West Midlands, 4.5% in the East of England, 4.5% in London, 5% in Yorkshire and Humber, 5.5% in the East Midlands and 9% in the North-East.

The beneficiaries, they said, would be Labour in the West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humber and the North-East. The Lib Dems would benefit in London and the East of England and the Greens in the East Midlands.

The group said their analysis was based on current polls for the voting preferences and uses the last European elections in 2014 as the benchmark for participation by region.