Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election ‘exit poll’ predicts Labour’s Bev Craig will win ‘with relative ease’
The poll has Labour in the lead
With vote-counting underway, a new poll suggests that Labour candidate Bev Craig is on track to succeed Andy Burnham as the Mayor of Greater Manchester.
The by-election was triggered by the new prime minister stepping down as mayor after he was elected MP for Makerfield.
Voters went to the polls yesterday, and an ‘exit-poll’ by pollster Find Out Now has predicted Labour will win ‘with relative ease’ with 41% of first-preference votes, with Reform’s Sian Astley well behind on 22%.
The poll puts the Greens’ candidate Geraldine Coggins down seven points on 15%, the Conservatives on 9%, Restore Britain on 8% and the Lib Dems on 5%.
Independent candidate Marcus Farmer is polling on 0%.
The election was carried out using the supplementary vote system, which gives voters a first and second preference.
After second preferences are redistributed, the poll projects Craig to win by 64% to Reform’s 36%.
Find Out Now interviewed a sample of 1,005 Greater Manchester adults on 30 July.
Only those who said they had voted or will ‘definitely’ vote are included in the headline voting intention.
This survey predicts that overall turnout was only 39%. However, that would still be the highest ever turnout recorded for a Greater Manchester mayoral election.
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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