Reform UK’s ‘victory’ might not be what it seems
A closer look at the data suggests that, despite the hype, Reform may actually have gone backwards.
As the country is bombarded with images of a triumphant Nigel Farage and headlines declaring Reform UK the future of British politics, including the Telegraph’s dramatic May 9 splash, “In a once Tory heartland, only hope is Reform,” the reality beneath the local election results may be far less straightforward.
A closer look at the data suggests that, despite the hype, Reform may actually have gone backwards.
Analysis by Sky News economics and data editor Ed Conway examined the National Equivalent Vote (NEV), an estimate projecting local election results into a nationwide vote share. Based on more than three million votes counted, Reform UK emerged ahead on 27%, followed by the Conservatives on 20%. Labour trailed on 15%, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens were level on 14%.
When those figures were translated into a projected redistribution of each party’s seats in the Commons, the result is a hung parliament, with no single party reaching the 326 seats needed for an outright majority.
But more notably still, Reform’s headline-grabbing 27% actually represents a decline compared with last year. On the same measure, the party is down five points from 32%. By contrast, the Conservatives rose from 18% to 20%, despite widespread assumptions that they were collapsing entirely.
Labour also slipped, falling four points from 19% to 15%, while the Liberal Democrats dropped from 16% to 14%.
The real story of the elections, at least on these figures, may instead be the Greens. Their support doubled from 7% last year to 14%, the largest increase of any party.
So, while Reform UK is dominating headlines and racking up council seats, the underlying vote-share data paints a more complicated picture. The party may be benefiting from media momentum, concentrated local gains, and the fragmentation of its opponents more than from any genuine surge in national support.
But as the Guardian’s Andrew Sparrow observed: “Good luck trying to persuade anyone in the party of that, given the number of seats they are winning.”
In other words, Reform UK may be winning the narrative, but not necessarily the argument that it’s unstoppable.
Left Foot Forward doesn't have the backing of big business or billionaires. We rely on the kind and generous support of ordinary people like you.
You can support hard-hitting journalism that holds the right to account, provides a forum for debate among progressives, and covers the stories the rest of the media ignore. Donate today.
Donate today
