Pollster predicts lower Labour losses than feared and fewer than expected gains for Reform

Labour’s losses in the local elections are set to be lower than expected, while the Greens may have a greater surge than predicted, according to Damian Lyons Lowe, a pollster. 

Counting is still underway in many areas, with most councils due to declare their results over the course of today. A small number of councils, including Tower Hamlets, Bradford, Croydon and Lewisham will not declare until tomorrow. 

Based on the results so far, Lowe, founder and CEO of Survation, has released his predictions on the final outcome of yesterday’s local elections suggests the following parties will make gains:

Reform: +1,419 seats

Green: +685 seats

Lib Dem: + 203 seats

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are predicted to lose 547 English council seats, while Labour is projected to lose 1,231 seats. 

These are heavy losses for Labour, but they are markedly lower than last week’s prediction from Lord Robert Hayward that Keir Starmer’s party could lose 1,850 seats in councils across England.

Michael Thrasher, co-founder of the Local Elections Centre, has also said that Labour may lose 1,200 council seats, rather than the 1,800 he had previously predicted.

In a post on X, Lowe noted that the consensus was that Reform would win over 1,625 seats, suggesting they may slightly underperform compared to expectations. 

He also wrote that the Conservatives’ losses are lower than the consensus that they would lose over 650 seats, meaning they are “holding up a little better than expected”.

On the Greens and Lib Dems, he wrote: “Green +685 vs consensus +588 – outperforming. LD +203 vs consensus +186 – on track.”

Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward