Labour are on track for big losses in London
In two weeks’ time, voters across London will go to the polls to elect every single councillor in the capital.
National opinion polls can give an indication as to what might happen in local elections. But they are nothing more than a rough guide. Turnout in local elections is considerably lower than general elections, and local factors often play an oversized role.
Local election polling is pretty rare. But this year, YouGov has conducted its first ever MRP poll looking at the elections in London. And the results are stark.
YouGov has described the results of its poll as projecting a ‘seismic shift for local government in the capital’.
The poll suggests that Labour’s stronghold in the city may be crumbling.
In the 2022 London local elections, Labour won the highest vote share in 21 of the 32 boroughs.
The median projection of YouGov’s poll has Labour receiving the most votes in just 15 – less than half.
Who are the big beneficiaries? The Greens and Reform.
According to the poll, the Greens are on track to receive the most votes across in Lambeth, Hackney, Lewisham and Waltham Forest. The poll has the Greens in second place in a further 14 boroughs.
Reform, meanwhile would top the poll in the outer London boroughs of Barking & Dagenham, Bromley and Havering.
The poll suggests that Labour are still on track to win the most votes across London, but down considerably on their 2022 result. According to the poll, Labour are estimated to receive 26 per cent of the vote across the city, down 16 points on 2022.
The Greens are projected to come second with 22 per cent, the Tories third with 17 per cent, the Lib Dems fourth with 15 per cent and Reform in fifth with 14 per cent.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
Image credit: Simon Dawson / Number 10 – Creative Commons
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