The Greens and Reform UK are also set to make big gains, while Labour is expected to lose more than 30 seats
Plaid Cymru are on track to become the largest party in the Senedd elections on 7 May, and just six short of the 49 needed for a majority.
According to YouGov’s first MRP model poll for the Senedd elections, Plaid Cymru is projected to win 43 out of 96 seats in the Welsh Parliament, thereby ousting Labour from government in Wales.
The poll, conducted by YouGov, found that right now, the current voting intention of people for the Senedd is as follows:
Senedd voting intention:
- Plaid Cymru – 33 (-4)
- Reform UK – 27 (+4)
- Welsh Labour – 13 (+3)
- Wales Green Party – 12 (-1)
- Welsh Conservatives – 7 (-3)
- Welsh Liberal Democrats – 5 (n/c)
- Others 4 – (+2)
Plaid, alongside the Greens or Labour, would command a majority in the Senedd. However, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said in January that he would prefer to form a minority Plaid government over a coalition with another party.
According to the poll, Labour is expected to lose 32 seats, leaving them with 12 seats and a 23% drop in their vote share.
The current first minister, Labour’s Eluned Morgan, is expected to lose her seat.
Meanwhile, Reform UK, which won 1% of the vote in the 2021 Senedd elections, is projected to win 30 seats.
The Conservatives and the Lib Dems are facing potential wipeouts, with the former projected to hold on to just one seat, while the Lib Dems may not win any.
YouGov’s new MRP methodology uses data on how people plan to vote at a constituency level, which accounts for tactical voting, to estimate how a party is likely to perform nationally.
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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