Is there any way out of the prospect of a Reform UK government led by Nigel Farage, aided by a well-connected, opaquely funded, MAGA inspired movement?

An incoming Reform government would have to “force nasty cough medicine down the country’s throat,” said James Orr, the Cambridge theologian seeking to shape the policy agenda of a party that hopes to govern Britain.

Orr, whom one academic colleague described as “more Tommy Robinson than St Thomas Aquinas,” became a driving force behind the pro-Reform think-tank, the Centre for a Better Britain (CFABB). He chaired the group’s advisory board before formally joining Reform UK as Farage’s senior adviser in October.

A prominent figure in the “national conservatism” movement, Orr cast the CFABB as a “post-Brexit, pro-nation, pro-sovereignty, pro-Britain” project. He has been heralded as JD Vance’s “intellectual mentor” and was a guest at the now infamous Cotswolds gathering hosted by the US Vice President in the summer. A close buddy of Vance, Orr has previously said the US Capitol Riot in January 2021 was exaggerated by the “global left.” 

CFABB’s mission is unambiguous, as its website claims, “Britain is simply broken,” and needs “rapid, radical reform.” Among its top priorities is developing options for constitutional reform and new policy to “help prepare the next government in 2029.”

Needing constitutional reform is a familiar refrain on the anti-liberal right but becomes far more dangerous when its advocates move from the ideological margins to seriously addressing the machinery of government.

As well as plans that reportedly involve cutting state services, opposing DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) initiatives, and “reforming healthcare,” the think-tank’s agenda includes resisting efforts to address climate change. Documents leaked to the Sunday Times, say the CFABB has already had “research commissioned” on the subject of “challenging the ESG [environmental, social, and governance] narrative.”  

Reform insists it has no formal ties with the new think-tank and is formulating policy in-house, but, prior to its launch, those involved in setting it up, reportedly met with both Farage and Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice, and some of its key figures are Farage allies.

The question, then, is simple: how worried should we be?

Warnings from America

The United States offers a terrifying illustration of what happens when such ideological projects are handed power.

From Britain, the cumulative impact of Donald Trump’s second presidency can be difficult to grasp, we see only fragments filtered through the news.

But independent monitoring offers a clearer picture. Since Trump returned to office in January, the independent Trump Action Tracker, has logged over five hundred actions that violate democratic norms and undermine the rule of law, more than two hundred moves to control or distort information including through misinformation and propaganda, and hundreds of measures weakening civil rights.

The pattern is clear, once such movements gain operational freedom, the guardrails of democracy can dissolve at alarming speed.

Tom Brake, CEO of Unlock Democracy, warns that a Reform-led ‘Project 2029’ could fast-track a similar trajectory in Britain. Writing in Left Foot Forward, he notes that an incoming government elected with less than three in ten votes, but with a large working majority, would have no difficulty implementing what Unlock Democracy has christened ‘Project 2029,’. This is seen as the UK’s equivalent of the US’s Project 2025: the Heritage Foundation’s successful blueprint for the Trump administration, something which Orr has expressed admiration for.

“It could overturn swathes of UK legislation without any serious resistance, including laws considered of a constitutional nature such as the Human Rights Act. Lord Hailsham’s ‘elective dictatorship’, 50 years after he first floated the danger, would become a reality,” Brake warns.

A well-funded, well-connected machine  

CFABB began under the name Resolute 1850, in reference to the HMS Resolute Royal Navy ship whose timbers were used to make the president’s desk in the Oval Office. It was gifted to the United States in 1880 by Queen Victoria as a symbol of gratitude and friendship. 

But such nostalgic symbolism differs sharply with the think-tank’s aggressive ambitions. The documents obtained by the Sunday Times show the CFABB has been in direct contact with Reform, including Nigel Farage, and is cultivating links with Robert Jenrick’s team. The documents also state that the Conservative Party “appears to be in terminal decline,” with doubts around Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. Plans were shared with potential donors in May and the project is reportedly seeking to raise over £25 million in a bid to install Nigel Farage as prime minister by 2029. The Times reported that it aims to funnel these funds into the development of “radical” policy proposals, draft legislation, targeted polling, and the recruitment and training of parliamentary candidates.

The group has even established a presence in the US, registering an entity in Dallas, Texas, to draw inspiration, and millions of dollars, from the MAGA movement, which twice propelled Donald Trump to the White House.

It is said to hold bi-weekly strategy meetings with the Prosperity Institute, the Legatum-linked, Dubai-based organisation that played a prominent role in the Brexit campaign, as they “prepare for 2029.”

Millbank Tower

The think-tank operates out of Millbank Tower, the same building that houses Reform UK’s headquarters. It’s a location with storied political pedigree, where successful political campaigns have been cooked up, including Labour’s 1997 landslide and Leave.EU’s winning plans for Brexit.

At the centre of CFABB’s operations is Jonathan Brown, a former Foreign Office diplomat. Though removed from the Reform Party in 2024 during an effort to “professionalise” its operations, Brown now leads CFABB and continues to cultivate US and UK donor networks. Only two donors have been disclosed so far – CFABB co-founders David Lilley and Mark Thompson, investors with business interests in the energy and metals industries.

Whether the rest of the funding sources will ever be disclosed remains unclear. As Brake notes, unless the group is more transparent than its likely stablemates, the ASI, IEA, TaxPayers’ Alliance, and Policy Exchange, foreign funding could remain entirely opaque.

Brown told Politics Home that a centre-right government, potentially one led by Reform, will need to bring non-traditional types into the civil service, like senior business people and academics, to ensure it can push through its plans.

In September, he told the Financial Times that the think-tank would “examine ways to weaken the authority of Britain’s judiciary and civil service under a future right-wing government, and make Trump-style sweeping changes to UK law.”

A media landscape built for power

Adding to the concern, is the fact that the multimedia system is already mobilising behind ‘Project 2029.’ Tom Brake writes: “An eco-system of supportive new media, social media and old media is already in place to support and amplify a Project 2029 agenda.”

Reform has mastered the contemporary media environment, particularly TikTok. A Guardian analysis of more than 12,000 posts found that since the general election, Reform’s engagement per post is nearly fourteen times that of Labour, the Conservatives, or the Liberal Democrats.

As we know, legacy media, too, has shown notable willingness to shield or amplify the party. The most recent and perhaps starkest example has been the muted coverage of Nathan Gill’s conviction for taking Russian bribes. Had a senior Labour figure been implicated in the same scandal, the right-wing press would have erupted with weeks of front-page outrage. In Reform’s case, much of the press simply looked away.

Reform is also expanding its reach among younger audiences. In June, Sky News reported that Archie Manners, the influencer and prankster who assisted Farage during the election campaign, had taken a leading role in CFABB’s communications strategy, emphasising the party’s intention to dominate digital media.

A path to resistance?

So, is there any way out of the prospect of a Reform UK government led by Nigel Farage, aided by a well-connected, opaquely funded, MAGA inspired movement?

There is, thankfully, some cause for optimism.

The grave risks posed by Project 2029 have prompted the 99% Organisation and Unlock Democracy, alongside other experts, to develop a Defensive Constitutional Reform Report, a set of measures the government can adopt now to reduce the chance of electoral manipulation by wealthy overseas backers and to limit the harm any future radical government could inflict.

Polling also brings some relief. Dogged by a messy few weeks, marked by allegations of Farage’s past racist comments, the Russian bribery scandal, not to mention the chaos in Reform-led councils such as Kent, support for the party has noticeably slipped.  A Survation poll showed Reform is down by five percentage points, and their 12-point lead over Labour has shrunk to just seven points. Three other parties have also gained support. Even data from YouGov shows a decline in voting intention for the party, and their lead over Labour has been cut down to six percentage points. 

Yet if the right excels at anything, it is mobilisation. This contrasts with the left’s disarray; just look at the chaotic launch of Your Party.

Reform UK and its think-tank allies are building a well-financed, media-savvy movement aimed at reshaping Britain’s constitutional architecture by 2029. The question is not whether they are preparing, but whether the country is.

Gabrielle Pickard-Whitehead is author of Right-Wing Watch

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