Reform "threw everything" at the Caerphilly by-election and lost
Plaid Cymru won the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, beating Reform with a 3,848 majority and ousting Labour from the seat.
Reform had been the favourite to win this election, having led the polls with 42% to Plaid’s 38%.
This is also a big defeat for Labour, who have held the Senedd seat since it was formed in 1999. It is the first time in over a century that the party has lost a Senedd or Westminster election in Caerphilly.
Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle won with 15,961 votes, Reform came second with 12,113 votes and Labour won just 3,713 votes. Turnout was 50%, a huge leap on 2021 when turnout was 44%.
The by-election was triggered after the constituency’s Labour Senedd member Hefin David sadly died unexpectedly.
Prior to the result being announced, investigative journalist in Wales, Will Hayward, noted in a post on X that Reform had “thrown everything at this by-election in Caerphilly”.
“Nigel Farage has been up multiple times including today. You can see that Reform were expecting a big party this evening. This is a huge blow to them if they have lost.”
In the early hours of the morning, Hayward wrote: “Nigel Farage was everywhere in Caerphilly today. He now appears to have vanished.”
Reform’s candidate, Llŷr Powell previously worked for the disgraced former Reform in Wales leader and ex-MEP, Nathan Gill, who was recently convicted of accepting bribes to make pro-Russia statements in the European Parliament.
Powell went hard on Reform UK’s anti-immigration pitch, even though immigrants make up only 2.9% of Caerphilly’s population.
Responding to Labour’s loss, Mainstream’s Interim Council said: “Labour’s historic defeat in Caerphilly is a tragedy, but not a surprise. So long as UK Labour governs without a clear vision, detached from its moral purpose and democratic socialist foundations, losses like this will only become more frequent.”
Neal Lawson, Director of Compass, said: “The voters of Caerphilly have shown two things: they will vote tactically for a progressive alternative to Reform, but they no longer view Labour as progressive.
“Labour needs a massive reset at every level before the elections next May, to become both progressive and pluralist, or they will be wiped out everywhere.”
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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