How are they doing in the polls?
Reform UK have been surging in the polls for some time, with most of them suggesting that were a general election held now they would receive the highest share of the popular vote.
Despite this, there’s evidence to suggest that support for Reform is now beginning to fall. It’s been three months since the local elections in May. Reform have been fairly consistently ahead in the polls throughout that period.
However, there does appear to have been a recent shift – and it’s against Reform.
In the first half of that three month period, Reform averaged support from 29.7% of the public across 37 opinion polls. In the second half, Reform have averaged 28.9% across 38 polls.
While this isn’t a major dip, it could suggest that support for Reform peaked earlier this year and has now started to fall.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
Image credit: House of Commons – Creative Commons
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