A YouGov study has revealed that in a Labour-Reform UK contest, tactical voting benefits Labour the most
A new YouGov voting intention study shows that in constituencies where only Labour or Reform UK could win, tactical voting would help Labour defeat Reform.
When asked how they would vote in such a scenario, 35% of respondents said they would support Starmer’s party, while 31% would back Farage’s.
At the 2024 general election, there were 89 seats in which Labour came first and Reform UK placed second.
Many of these seats are expected to be key targets for Reform UK in the next general election.
The YouGov study, which surveyed 2,178 adults, suggests that in a tactical voting scenario, the electorate effectively breaks into left and right-wing blocs.
The 35% Labour vote share includes 17% from Labour voters, along with 6% from Lib Dem supporters and 4% from Green voters.
Reform UK’s 31% vote share in this scenario consists of 18% from current Reform UK supporters, 7% from Tory voters likely to switch to the party, and minimal backing from other major parties.
Despite Reform’s rise in the voting intention polls, YouGov favourability polling shows 60% of Brits have a negative view of Nigel Farage, with 56% saying the same of his party.
In seats where Reform and the Tories are the only parties with a chance of winning, the two right wing parties are neck and neck, with the Tories on 26% to Reform’s 25%.
In the event of a Labour-Conservative contest, Kemi Badenoch’s party proves unable to take the lead, with 31% voting Labour and 28% backing the Tories.
Although there were no seats where Reform UK came second to the Lib Dems, in a hypothetical Lib Dem-Reform UK contest, the Lib Dems would see off Reform, holding a seven point lead at 36% to Reform’s 29%.
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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