Labour are on track to come second
A by-election is set to take place in Runcorn and Helsby following the former Labour MP Mike Amesbury indicating he intends to resign from the House of Commons after his assault conviction earlier this year.
Left Foot Forward previously took a look at who could be in the running to win, based on national polls and the way voters tend to behave in by-elections. Now, we have a little more of an indication as to what might happen as the first constituency level poll has been published.
Lord Ashcroft Polls asked voters in the constituency who they intend to vote for. The results offer grim reading for Labour. Despite Keir Starmer’s party winning the seat in 2024 with more than 50 per cent of the vote, the poll suggests Reform will win in the by-election.
According to Ashcroft’s poll, the current voting intention in the by-election is as follows:
- Reform UK – 40%
- Labour – 35%
- Tory – 10%
- Lib Dem – 8%
- Green – 6%
- Other – 2%
Despite the shocking results of the poll, it should be taken with a pinch of salt. All polls have margins of error, with those in individual constituencies being larger than those of national polls. Additionally, polls take a snapshot of opinion at a given time. A by-election is at least several weeks away, and voting intention could well shift considerably between now and then.
Nevertheless, it shows that Labour could be in trouble in one of its first big electoral tests since winning the general election last July.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
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