The rise of climate-sceptic populist figures both in the UK and abroad, puts climate action at risk of being side-lined in favour of regressive, anti-environmental politics that could undo years of hard-fought progress.

The catastrophic wildfires sweeping through Los Angeles are a sobering reminder of the deadly reality of climate change. Yet, the incoming president – a vocal climate sceptic, who has derided green energy efforts as a “scam” – is using the disaster to fuel political divisions and spread disinformation.

The California catastrophe follows the extreme floods in Spain in November, which claimed hundreds of lives and marked the deadliest weather event in modern Spanish history.  Climate experts have confirmed a clear link between climate change and these extreme weather events.

Yet around the world, not just the US, climate action is under threat. In the UK, news broke this week that Nigel Farage and Liz Truss joined in the launch of the UK branch of a US climate denying lobby group. ‘Heartland’ has boasted that it is “the world’s most prominent think tank supporting scepticism about man-made climate change.” The UK branch is set to be headed by Lois Perry, former UKIP leader who, like Trump, has described the climate emergency as a “scam.”

While across the world, upcoming elections pose the risk of climate-sceptic leaders coming to power.

Canada

In Canada, a leader hailed for championing climate initiatives is stepping down. Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government, once seen as a beacon for climate action, is trailing in the polls as Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre gains ground. For months, Poilievre has been warning Canadians that their holidays are at risk from a “carbon tax” and a “wacko” Liberal government. But as one Canadian newspaper wrote, the true menace to summer holidays is more about the tangible reality of climate change – severe floods, extreme heatwaves and intensifying wildfires. Poilievre’s proposal to suspend federal gas and diesel taxes has been described as reckless and showing disregard for effective climate policy.

Australia

Poilievre’s ‘axe the tax’ mantra is a familiar chant in Australia, another big fossil producer, where a general election is due in May. Tony Abbott rode the same slogan to power in 2013, dismantling the previous Labor government’s carbon pricing scheme. Since taking office in 2022, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has introduced a range of climate policies, but he too faces stiff opposition. Opposition leader Peter Dutton is attacking Labor’s renewable energy push, instead advocating for seven nuclear reactors, a highly ambitious proposal for a country that bans nuclear power. Critics call the plan a fig leaf to prolong the life of fossil fuel generation, since nuclear plants take so much time and money to build. 

Germany

In Germany, recent polls show that Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is expected to win the snap general election on February 23 and replace the centre-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Under Scholz’s leadership, renewable energy has flourished, with Germany on track to meet its 2030 target of generating 80 percent of its electricity from renewable sources. But Merz argues that the country requires a “completely different type of politics,” signalling his intent to roll back the government’s climate policies. He has described wind turbines as unattractive and wind power as a transitional technology.

Meanwhile, Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has surged in the polls, now standing at 22%. The party’s newly released election manifesto proposes a series of highly controversial measures, including withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on climate change.

France

A similar story is taking shape in France, the EU’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, where the rise of the far-right threatens to undermine climate efforts.

France has long been a vocal champion for EU-wide industrial policies to support clean technologies, with President Emmanuel Macron pushing for Europe to establish a green manufacturing base capable of competing with subsidised competition in the US and China.

But political instability in France appears to be benefitting Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party, which made notable gains in the 2024 European elections. Climate experts warn that victory for the RN could lead to a ‘big regression’ in climate action that could spread across Europe.

The party has reportedly indicated it wants to overturn a 2035 ban on combustion engine cars, block new wind turbines, scrap low-emissions zones and rip up rules on energy efficiency.

“It’s going to be a big regression, at least for climate policy,” said Christophe Cassou, research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research.

Scientists are also concerned that a far-right victory could jeopardise global climate diplomacy and usher in attacks on science, similar to the climate science denial seen in the US under Donald Trump.

“As scientists, we have the feeling we are in a trap,” said Cassou. “Our goal is to bring facts to help the public discussion … but with scepticism and denial of science it’s very complicated to have a dialogue.”

But what about in Britain?

Following the Tories’ U-turns on the environment, including pushing back the deadline for selling new petrol and diesel cars and the phasing out of gas boilers under Rishi Sunak, Labour’s landslide in the general election was promising for climate action.

And Labour got off to a good start, cracking down on water companies to clean up our filthy rivers, withdrawing support for a new coalmine, stopping oil and gas licenses, setting up a new renewable energy company, Great British Energy, giving the light for new windfarms, and withdrawing support for a new coalmine.

Growth at the expense of climate action?

But with growth central to Labour’s strategy for staying in office by turning around a stagnant economy, there is a worry that green policies might be watered down.

In December, when pressed on the pressure carmakers face in shifting to climate-friendly electric vehicles (EVs), business secretary Jonathan Reynolds said he had “no interest in hitting climate targets by shutting down jobs and industry.” He also promised to “fast-track” a consultation on changing the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which sets annual EV sales targets with hefty fines for manufacturers that miss their quotas.

But environmentalists warn against such a move. Colin Walker, head of transport at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank, warned that watering down the ZEV mandate would undermine Britain’s climate goals.

The ZEV mandate “is one of the most impactful measures the government has for reducing CO2 emissions across transport,” he said, adding: “The green agenda and the growth agenda are not mutually exclusive.”

Before the election, Labour U-turned on its pledge to spend £28 billion a year on a cleaner economy. Politico argues that the abandonment of the policy shows the party’s willingness to scale back its climate commitments when under pressure, writing:

“… cars are just one issue where political reality is starting to bite.”

Additionally, Labour’s promise to build 1.5 million new homes during this parliament has raised concerns among environmental campaigners, who fear the environmental impact of fast-tracking planning processes.

In a  letter to green groups  shortly after Labour took office, environmental secretary Steve Reed – a key figure in Labour Together, the pro-Starmer thinktank – and housing minister Angela Rayner expressed frustration with the pace of housing development due to “environmental assessments” and “case-by-case negotiations for mitigation and compensation.” Famously, or infamously, she declared in an interview in December that newts should not be more protected than people in need of housing. Many a worthwhile policy has been wrecked on such a foolish binary, as Rayner herself half recognised when she said we should be able to do both.

Before the election, there were reportedly suggestions that influential figures in the Labour election machine had doubts about the party’s net zero promises.  McSweeney, along with Pat McFadden, Wolverhampton South MP, were reportedly  instrumental in watering down Labour’s longstanding pledge to invest £28bn a year in the green economy, which was approximately halved in February over fears that the Tories would make it a target of their attacks.

Meanwhile, at Cop29 in November, Ed Miliband, energy security and net zero minister, pledged that the UK will seek a global coalition to push for climate action. He played a key role in the $300bn finance deal for developing countries.

Miliband has argued that forging a global coalition to tackle the climate crisis, and providing finance to the poorest nations, are in the UK’s interest.

After Cop29, he told journalists: “This idea is 100% in Britain’s self-interest. I think there is a great British tradition of ensuring that we play our part in helping vulnerable countries who are exposed to climate change. Our estimates in the department say that [the $300bn of climate finance by 2035] could help protect up to a billion people [from] some of the effects of climate change and also on mitigation.”For years, Miliband has warned that Britain is ‘sleepwalking to a climate crisis,’ and against listening to ‘siren voices’ on climate change denial. But the energy secretary continues to face aggressive criticism from the political right and their media supporters. In September, the Telegraph published an article entitled: “Miliband is poised to wreck Britain – Starmer has little time to rein him in,” accusing Miliband of being reckless with his decarbonisation goals.

At the moment, the Labour government is just about staying on the tightrope between, on the one side, the reality of climate change as an existential threat, and on the other, those who seek to make political capital from pointing to any real or invented short-term costs to voters in pursuing a green agenda. As is frequently the case, Sadiq Khan in London has demonstrated that it is possible to marry political success with green politics. Labour’s challenge is to roll out such policies from their city strongholds to the country as a whole. At present I remain optimistic that this just might be possible but in the full knowledge that disappointment lurks around every corner.

It would be nice to think that His Majesty’s opposition might join in a wartime style national crusade to get serious with climate change. Sadly, the state of our current Tory party means that net zero and environmental progress would stand little chance.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has openly criticised the UK’s green ambitions, describing herself as a “net zero sceptic.” She has also claimed that the UK’s net-zero targets would bankrupt the country, while boasting of her opposition to the green lobby during her time in government and labelling Labour’s ban on new North Sea oil and gas licences as “foolish.”

Also concerningly is the rise Nigel Farage and Reform, which campaigns to “scrap all of net zero” and backs new fossil fuel extraction, including fracking and opening new coal mines. Farage has struck up a close relationship with Heartland UK/Europe, an organisation linked to the incoming Trump administration and funded by corporations like ExxonMobil and wealthy US Republican donors.

Worryingly, in an interview in October with James Taylor, Heartland Institute president, Farage claimed the “minority position” against net zero was “gaining ground.”

Farage and Liz Truss’s association with the group, confirms the UK right’s commitment to a global movement that seeks to derail efforts to tackle the catastrophic impacts of climate change.

On a more hopeful note, the Green Party had its most successful election in 2024, securing four seats — a rare victory for climate-conscious politics in the current climate.

But despite the glimmers of hope, the rise of climate-sceptic populist figures both in the UK and abroad, puts climate action at risk of being side-lined in favour of regressive, anti-environmental politics that could undo years of hard-fought progress.

Meanwhile the world burns – literally.

Gabrielle Pickard-Whitehead is author of Right-Wing Watch

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