One party has increased its support significantly since the general election
It’s now been more than three months since the 2024 general election. After Labour’s historic election victory, there’s been a lot of movement in the polls. Here’s what’s been happening.
According to the ten most recently conducted voting intention polls, Labour remains ahead, averaging support from 30% of the public. The Tories are in second place, averaging 24.5%.
That’s not much change for the Tories since the election, as Rishi Sunak picked up just shy of 24% of the vote this July. Labour, by contrast, are down 3.7 points on the general election result.
The Lib Dems and Greens are also in a similar position to where they were earlier this year. The Greens are up 0.5 points on their general election performance, and the Lib Dems are up 0.4 points – both of which are well within the margin of error.
The biggest beneficiaries since voters last went to the polls are Reform UK. Over the last 10 polls, Nigel Farage’s party has averaged 18.9%, up significantly from the 14.3% they picked up in the general election.
Fluctuations in the polls are not uncommon, and governments generally tend to lose some support during a parliament before recovering in the run up to a general election.
Still, Keir Starmer will no doubt be concerned that the four most recent polls have all had Labour at below 30%, with one even showing them neck and neck with the Tories.
Then again, there isn’t any evidence that the public are warming to either of the two Tory leadership contenders who appear unlikely to turn their party’s fortunes around for the long term.
What is arguably more worrying for those on the left of politics is that Nigel Farage’s latest outfit is picking up support from almost a fifth of the population. Now having a foothold in the House of Commons, clearly a new approach is needed to ward off the populist right.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
Image credit: Oatsy40 – Creative Commons
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