This is where the Green Party is set to get its highest vote share

YouGov’s latest MRP poll has been raising lots of eyebrows. The headline figures showed Labour are on track for a landslide victory with the Tories left on just 169 seats.

YouGov’s projections also suggest that 11 current cabinet members are set to be turfed out of the House of Commons, including the chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

Understandably, much of the attention has focussed on the big two – Labour and the Tories. But what about the smaller parties? YouGov has some interesting data on the Green Party.

Looking at YouGov’s raw data, it is possible to see the constituencies the polling firm are projecting the Greens will perform best.

YouGov suggest that the Greens will hold their only parliamentary seat of Brighton Pavilion. The Greens are sitting on 49% to Labour’s 32%. Brighton Pavilion is, unsurprisingly, the seat in which YouGov’s data suggests that the Greens will achieve their highest vote share.

Next up, it’s Bristol Central – the new parliamentary constituency that Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer is standing in. According to YouGov’s numbers, Bristol Central is a dead heat between the Greens and Labour. The polling firm has Labour on 42% and the Greens on 38%.

Of the 10 constituencies YouGov suggests the Greens will do best, four are in London – including the Labour leader Keir Starmer’s seat of Holborn and St Pancras.

The following list shows the 10 constituencies where the Green Party is expected to perform best:

1. Brighton Pavilion – Greens projected to win with 49% to Labour’s 32%
2. Bristol Central – Greens projected to come second on 38% to Labour’s 42%
3. Dulwich and West Norwood – Greens projected to come second on 27% to Labour’s 52%
4. Hackney North and Stoke Newington – Greens projected to come second on 24% to Labour’s 56%
5. Hackney South and Shoreditch – Greens projected to come second on 20% to Labour’s 61%
6. Sheffield Central – Greens projected to come second on 20% to Labour’s 58%
7. Holborn and St Pancras – Greens projected to come second on 19% to Labour’s 54%
8. Manchester Rusholme – Greens projected to come second on 19% to Labour’s 62%
9. Waveney Valley – Greens projected to come third on 19% to Labour’s 25% and the Tories’ 34%
10. Bristol South – Greens projected to come third on 18% to the Tories’ 19% and Labour’s 46%

In October 2023, the Green Party confirmed that it will be targeting four parliamentary seats at the next election – Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire.

According to YouGov’s data, North Herefordshire is joint 28th on the list of seats where the Green vote share is projected to be highest. YouGov has the Tories on 35%, Labour on 22%, the Lib Dems on 16%, and the Greens on 13%.

MRP polls have a much larger sample size than traditional polls. They are also used to map data onto individual constituencies with weighting for local demographics. In YouGov’s new poll, 14,000 people were polled. Opinion polls normally have sample sizes of between 1,000 and 2,000.

Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward

Image credit: Matthew Philip Long – Creative Commons

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