11 cabinet members are set to be turfed out of parliament
A new MRP poll from YouGov has been published in the Telegraph, and it makes grim reading for the Tories. According to the poll, Labour are heading for a landslide victory at the next general election, with the Tories set to end up with just 169 seats in the House of Commons.
The major drubbing that the Tories are heading for would see high profile cabinet members lose their seats. According to the poll, 11 members of Rishi Sunak’s cabinet are set to be turfed out of parliament.
The chancellor Jeremy Hunt is the most high profile figure YouGov suggests will be unseated. Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt and Gillian Keegan are also on track to lose their seats.
Here’s the full list of who the YouGov poll suggests will lose their seat:
- Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor of the Exchequer). Liberal Democrats predicted to win in Godalming and Ash.
- Penny Mordaunt (Leader of the House of Commons). Labour predicted to win in Portsmouth North.
- Grant Shapps (Defence Secretary). Labour predicted to win in Welwyn Hatfield.
- Victoria Prentis (Attorney General). Labour predicted to win in Banbury.
- Gillian Keegan (Education Secretary). Liberal Democrats predicted to win in Chichester.
- Alex Chalk (Justice Secretary). Liberal Democrats predicted to win in Cheltenham.
- Simon Hart (Chief Whip). Labour predicted to win in Caerfyrddin.
- Lucy Frazer (Culture Secretary). Liberal Democrats predicted to win in Ely and East Cambridgeshire.
- David TC Davies (Welsh Secretary). Labour predicted to win in Monmouthshire.
- Johnny Mercer (Minister for Veterans Affairs). Labour predicted to win in Plymouth Moor View.
- Alister Jack (Scottish Secretary). SNP predicted to win in Dumfries and Galloway.
Alongside these cabinet members, well known Tory figures – including the party’s former leader Iain Duncan Smith and the Tories’ current deputy chair Lee Anderson – are set to lose their seat in the next election.
The poll published in the Telegraph is different to a typical opinion poll. It is an MRP poll – short for multilevel regression with poststratification. This catchy name refers to an extensive poll with a much larger sample size that is mapped onto individual constituencies with weighting for local demographic data. In YouGov’s new poll, 14,000 people were polled. Opinion polls normally have sample sizes of between 1,000 and 2,000.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
Image credit: Andrew Parsons – Creative Commons
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