The Lib Dems look set to win back the seat they lost in 2015.
A poll by Number Cruncher Politics suggests that the Liberal Democrats have a sizeable lead in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.
The poll suggests that the Liberal Democrats are on 43% ahead of the Tories (28%), the Brexit Party (20%) and Labour (8%). The Greens and Plaid Cymru did not stand.
The by-election is being held after the Tory MP Chris Davies was convicted of claiming false expenses and a petition to recall him was succesful. Davies is standing for the seat again.
The poll of 509 adults was conducted online between the 10th and 18th of July and the election will be held on 1 August.
In 2017, the Liberal Democrats finished second in the seat – on 29% while Labour finished third on 17%.
Before the Tories won it in 2015, the seat had been held by the Liberal Democrats since 1997. Labour have not held the seat since 1979.
The consituentcy is a large rural one in Wales, along the English border. It is older and wealthier than the Welsh average and Brecon is its largest town.
Update: This article originally stated that Labour had not held the seat since 1970. This has been corrected to 1979.
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23 Responses to “Polling shows Lib Dem lead in Brecon by-election”
Michael Ladomery
To those labour people going on about lib dems supporting austerity – apart from that being nonsense, the lib dems successfully pushed for raising the lower tax threshold, we are in 2019 not 2010. If the tories have their no deal brexit it will be sever austerity as the economy tanks. Support the lib dems or, de facto, allow a tory in to boost Boris. Your choice
Bolsover Labour remainer
Time to stop the mad quitters, and vote Lib Dem one time only ay any seat where the Tories could lose with a united remain vote. Then sort out the consequences later when Boris and Skinner have gone, and our future in Europe is assured.
Sean Hogan
2 of the 4 MEPs sent from Wales to Brussels are Brexit Party, and Farage in no mood for his candidate in Brecon to stand aside for Chris Davies. Students & recent graduates shouldn’t forget how LibDems betrayed them in 2010 by tripling tuition fees. Quite a legacy – a millstone crushing coming generations – yet Jo Swinson&co still in denial about all that. Boris making it too easy for them all by ducking Brecon today. Makes both him and Davies look bad. This seat is significant / pwysig iawn.