The Lib Dems look set to win back the seat they lost in 2015.
A poll by Number Cruncher Politics suggests that the Liberal Democrats have a sizeable lead in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.
The poll suggests that the Liberal Democrats are on 43% ahead of the Tories (28%), the Brexit Party (20%) and Labour (8%). The Greens and Plaid Cymru did not stand.
The by-election is being held after the Tory MP Chris Davies was convicted of claiming false expenses and a petition to recall him was succesful. Davies is standing for the seat again.
The poll of 509 adults was conducted online between the 10th and 18th of July and the election will be held on 1 August.
In 2017, the Liberal Democrats finished second in the seat – on 29% while Labour finished third on 17%.
Before the Tories won it in 2015, the seat had been held by the Liberal Democrats since 1997. Labour have not held the seat since 1979.
The consituentcy is a large rural one in Wales, along the English border. It is older and wealthier than the Welsh average and Brecon is its largest town.
Update: This article originally stated that Labour had not held the seat since 1970. This has been corrected to 1979.
23 Responses to “Polling shows Lib Dem lead in Brecon by-election”
Chris Franks
Well done to Plaid Cymru and the Green for behaving like adults and maximising the chances of keeping out the Tories/Brexit Party. Shame on Labour and its failing leader.
Sian Caiach
Plaid’s deal with the LibDems could gift them Plaid’s voters, 3% of the last Westminster vote and the greens didn’t stand so hard to tell impact.
Problem for Plaid’s Leader, Adam Price is his previous public statement that he is a socialist first and nationalist second. I’m sure a deal with a Unionist Party is going down not too well with many Plaid Members and I wonder whether the promised reciprocal agreements in future elections with centrist, anti-independence LibDems will be honoured and convince the activists it was worth loosing credibility for? .
Neil McCart
What puzzles me is why the Tories put up a convicted criminal fraudster as their candidate – does it reflect their Tory values, or are they setting up a scapegoat for the trouncing they are going to receive? Possibly both.
a2c
Iss Queen Jo and the Lib Dems all the way for a2c. There the ones who will elp us on low wages unlike Labour who will take ourn ahrt of the EU n destroy jobs n trade if Corbyn gets is way. The Lib Dems will bring in more local police, save the NHS n make the country greener. Iss Lib Dems til I die, as a council tenant I’d never vote labour again.
Nigel Grant
Is that the same Jo Swinson who happily supported the Tory Party In introducing their Austerity Policies and who wanted a statue to honour Margaret Thatcher. Don’t be fooled by her sweet talk. She is not to be trusted and is no friend of the poor and vulnerable in our society.