The Lib Dems look set to win back the seat they lost in 2015.
A poll by Number Cruncher Politics suggests that the Liberal Democrats have a sizeable lead in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.
The poll suggests that the Liberal Democrats are on 43% ahead of the Tories (28%), the Brexit Party (20%) and Labour (8%). The Greens and Plaid Cymru did not stand.
The by-election is being held after the Tory MP Chris Davies was convicted of claiming false expenses and a petition to recall him was succesful. Davies is standing for the seat again.
The poll of 509 adults was conducted online between the 10th and 18th of July and the election will be held on 1 August.
In 2017, the Liberal Democrats finished second in the seat – on 29% while Labour finished third on 17%.
Before the Tories won it in 2015, the seat had been held by the Liberal Democrats since 1997. Labour have not held the seat since 1979.
The consituentcy is a large rural one in Wales, along the English border. It is older and wealthier than the Welsh average and Brecon is its largest town.
Update: This article originally stated that Labour had not held the seat since 1970. This has been corrected to 1979.
23 Responses to “Polling shows Lib Dem lead in Brecon by-election”
DAvid Smith
The party is always correct. The great leader of the party Comrade JC has evaluated all circumstances and has dialectically determined the correct position on Brexit based on a correct working class analysis, understanding the leave supporting analysis of the comrade ex-min ers in Derbyshire, whilst avoiding alienating PB remain fellow travellers.
David temperley
A couple of posts hit the nail on the head, today the key issue is to reverse the ERG sponsored Brexit, in place due to lies and further lies encouraged by our new PM. What a farce. The Lib Dem’s, the Greens Plaid Cymru have all made their position clear. Labour have vacillated hot and cold for so long, they are as responsible as the Tories for the current situation. I still have no idea what they will actually promote on the Brexit issue come an election. I have no strong party allegiance, other than being anti-Tory for 50 years, but I know who I will be voting for in the next election. Jo Swinson’s election as LD leader is a beacon of hope amongst the darkness of Johnson vs Corbyn.
Ian Robertson
Apparently over half of Conservative members would be prepared to harm the economy to achieve their virtually religious Brexit. They would also not mind splitting up the union to achieve this. Do anything to get this lot out of power.
Pat MS
I agree with those who prioritise defeating the Tories and the Brexit ‘Party’. It’s great that Plaid Cymru and the Greens have been big enough to stand aside for the LibDems. A pity that Labour has not done the same. There were several local agreements between Labour, LibDems and Greens in 2017. Labour got Ealing, Cable got back into Twickenham and the Greens hung onto Brighton. Until the proper PR that Labour has long avoided is rolled out, the best bet against the rabid right is a coalition of Labour plus all the Remain parties. This could win massively at the next election, though perhaps with no party with an absolute majority – but that’s the new normal. I suspect that Corbyn and his Marxist supporters have analysed that Brexit is a good thing, the EU being a largely capitalist venture preventing true socialism in their eyes, so believe they will storm to power once the realities of Brexit start hitting the poorest hardest. More likely, the Americans will circle over our decaying public sector and NHS and complete the Tories’ privatisation of British (well English/Welsh, as Scotland will quickly break away and return to the EU and there could be interesting changes in NI) state assets and this WelshEngland rump will become a vassal state of Trump’s USA, something surely Corbyn abhors. So much for taking back power! Pat (once a Macmillanite, i.e. genuine one-nation Tory, but drifting leftwards as I get older, now supporting the Green Party).
arwyn thomas
I was in the LPYS 40 years ago. We were all solidly left wing. Revolutionary even. I can’t imagine many who would not be backing Corbyn now.