REVEALED: Public would back fresh referendum in event of ‘no deal’ Brexit

Shock BMG poll for Left Foot Forward shows majority back fresh vote if talks fail.

A majority of voters would back a fresh in-out referendum on the European Union in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, according to a new poll for Left Foot Forward

57% of those with a view say they’d support a second referendum, if Theresa May failed to secure a deal with the EU, according to the BMG Research poll for this site.

The figure is an increase on last month, when 54% of those with a view backed a second vote in the event of ‘no deal’.

Support for a fresh mandate rises to 74% among current Labour supporters who would back a second vote if the UK was forced onto World Trade Organisation terms and tariffs. It represents a rise from 70% last month.

Jeremy Corbyn ruled out a second EU vote at the weekend – seemingly putting him at odds with most Labour supporters. There is a growing campaign in the party to back an in/out referendum if Parliament votes against the Prime Minister’s deal.

Labour support for a new vote compares to just 36% of Conservatives, and 81% of SNP supporters and Lib Dems.

The findings also reveal a significant generational divide, with 73% of 18-24 year olds with a view supporting another referendum in the event of ‘no deal’ – compared to just 45% of those aged 55+.

Josiah Mortimer, Editor of Left Foot Forward, said: 

“This will make uncomfortable reading for both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn.

“If the PM fails to secure a proper deal with the EU, most voters with a view want a fresh in/out referendum on our membership.

“That idea would not have been conceivable a year ago – showing just how much the debate has shifted.

“But this also piles pressure on the Labour leader – who only at the weekend ruled out a fresh EU vote. Jeremy Corbyn is at odds with most Labour supporters on the issue as he tries to juggle competing demands. More and more of his own backers are coming out in support of stopping Brexit altogether.

“Indeed, Labour voters’ backing for a fresh vote is catching up with the Lib Dems and SNP. The question is whether the leadership will budge on the issue.

“Whatever the case, the question must be addressed as to what happens if May fails to secure a deal. There is growing momentum for going back to the public – but whether that will happen depends on the verdict in Westminster.”

Source Note: BMG Research interviewed a representative sample of 1,513 UK adults online between 9th & 12th January. Data are weighted. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.

The question asked was: ‘Imagine a scenario where the UK Government and the European Union were unable to reach a deal – a scenario sometimes referred to as a “no deal” Brexit. A “no deal” Brexit would result in the UK having no preferential trading and custom arrangements with the EU, leaving us to trade with the EU on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. In this scenario, would you support a new/fresh in-out referendum on EU membership?’

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4 Responses to “REVEALED: Public would back fresh referendum in event of ‘no deal’ Brexit”

  1. Martyn Wood-Bevan

    There is too much nonsense being written about what will happen to the UK economy after Brexit, most of which has been proved to be flawed. The London School of Economics has studied this in some depth and concluded that the worst possible scenario would have less than 2% effect on the UK Economy and that this will disappear by 2030. “Cliff Edge” and “Catastrophic Effect” are profound exaggerations but the disinterested public are easily influenced in their views. 68% of constituencies in England, Wales and N. Ireland voted leave and Labour would be unlikely to get into power if it came out in favour of a Second Referendum at this premature stage. Lets agree to avoid making fools of ourselves: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/how-bad-will-brexit-really-be-for-the-uk/

  2. Chris Golightly

    Whether it is likely or not to have only a 2% effect on the UK economy (presumably GDP), this is just one aspect. Staying within the European Union is about more than simply money, which is important of course. There has been a growing realisation that for the British economy this would be a bad decision. There are many other aspects about departure which would be disastrous. Most left-leaning people are realising this now and in my view revoking Article 50 and staying in Europe is now more or less inevitable. The whole affair has been a gigantic, debilitating waste of time and money and Vlad Putin will have been rubbing his hands at the success of his meddling in America and Britain.

  3. Elizabeth Chell

    It’s all very well economists calculating that the impact of Brexit on the British economy over the next 12 years will be a downturn of 2% and that the economy will then recover. That is a large percentage of someone’s life. In particular for a young person who has suffered under Tory austerity that plus the projection amount to 20 years of misery: large student debt, lower wage/salary, inability to afford to buy a house, dependence on parents, etc. This is not the inheritance that we should be wishing on our children, the next generation.

  4. Das

    Yet another false claim from the ministry of wishful thinking.
    These experts still don’t understand why we voted to leave again.
    We, the great British people did not vote to leave the EU so that we could vote to rejoin.
    The interpretation of the above needs to be properly scrutinised and studied until it’s embedded into the matter sits on their necks.
    Of course, to a microscopic number of people it also could mean that if the EU don’t watch their step, we really Will leave!

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