Shock BMG poll for Left Foot Forward shows majority back fresh vote if talks fail.
A majority of voters would back a fresh in-out referendum on the European Union in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, according to a new poll for Left Foot Forward
57% of those with a view say they’d support a second referendum, if Theresa May failed to secure a deal with the EU, according to the BMG Research poll for this site.
The figure is an increase on last month, when 54% of those with a view backed a second vote in the event of ‘no deal’.
Support for a fresh mandate rises to 74% among current Labour supporters who would back a second vote if the UK was forced onto World Trade Organisation terms and tariffs. It represents a rise from 70% last month.
Jeremy Corbyn ruled out a second EU vote at the weekend – seemingly putting him at odds with most Labour supporters. There is a growing campaign in the party to back an in/out referendum if Parliament votes against the Prime Minister’s deal.
Labour support for a new vote compares to just 36% of Conservatives, and 81% of SNP supporters and Lib Dems.
The findings also reveal a significant generational divide, with 73% of 18-24 year olds with a view supporting another referendum in the event of ‘no deal’ – compared to just 45% of those aged 55+.
Josiah Mortimer, Editor of Left Foot Forward, said:
“This will make uncomfortable reading for both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn.
“If the PM fails to secure a proper deal with the EU, most voters with a view want a fresh in/out referendum on our membership.
“That idea would not have been conceivable a year ago – showing just how much the debate has shifted.
“But this also piles pressure on the Labour leader – who only at the weekend ruled out a fresh EU vote. Jeremy Corbyn is at odds with most Labour supporters on the issue as he tries to juggle competing demands. More and more of his own backers are coming out in support of stopping Brexit altogether.
“Indeed, Labour voters’ backing for a fresh vote is catching up with the Lib Dems and SNP. The question is whether the leadership will budge on the issue.
“Whatever the case, the question must be addressed as to what happens if May fails to secure a deal. There is growing momentum for going back to the public – but whether that will happen depends on the verdict in Westminster.”
Source Note: BMG Research interviewed a representative sample of 1,513 UK adults online between 9th & 12th January. Data are weighted. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.
The question asked was: ‘Imagine a scenario where the UK Government and the European Union were unable to reach a deal – a scenario sometimes referred to as a “no deal” Brexit. A “no deal” Brexit would result in the UK having no preferential trading and custom arrangements with the EU, leaving us to trade with the EU on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. In this scenario, would you support a new/fresh in-out referendum on EU membership?’
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