Fake News: Leave.EU publishes junk poll calling Stoke by-election for UKIP

Right-Wing Watch

Polling experts warn journalists not to report results

 

This morning, seedy Brexit sideshow Leave.EU has published a new ‘poll’, which shows UKIP leader Paul Nuttall winning the Stoke central by-election with 39 per cent of the vote.

However, they have published no methodology beyond claiming an implausibly large sample size. The research director of YouGov has advised scepticism pointing out that a phone poll of 4,000 people in a constituency election is ‘getting on for impossible’.

Another leading psephologist, Will Jennings, has dismissed the poll, warning journalists that to report its findings with further corroboration would be ‘as bad as fake news’.

Back in June, Leave.EU published an poll predicting the results of the EU referendum which, although it included no convincing methodology, accurately predicted a 52-48 result. Some have suggested that this lends credence to the ‘data’ published today.

That fails to recognise that given the tight margin predicted in the referendum, and the fact that there were only two possible options, there was a high probability of guessing the correct outcome.

Given that Leave.EU founder Arron Banks — also UKIP’s largest donor — openly admits that their MO was getting media attention through sensationalist content, we should assume that their ‘polling predictions’ are no more than stabs in the dark.

This is further evidence that Banks and his cronies are deliberately creating fake news in an attempt to influence the electorate.

We should call them out for what they are — liars.

Niamh Ní Mhaoileoin is editor of Left Foot Forward. Follow her on Twitter

See: Dear Stoke-on-Trent: Here’s what Paul Nuttall really stands for

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8 Responses to “Fake News: Leave.EU publishes junk poll calling Stoke by-election for UKIP”

  1. Andrew

    Come on, let’s be fair. A larger sample obviously provides a more acurate picture than a smaller one. To say otherwise is irrational, and is a repudiation of elementary scientific rigour. A larger poll is self-evidently the main reason why the actual votes on polling day provides the most illuminating picture – because it is a full complement. The above comments disparaging large samples, simply lack a sense of objectivity. Do those same commenters read the press/ internet merely seeking a comforting echo chamber? If we can keep the dialogue in this forum on a more reasonable footing; I’m sure that would better promote readers’ trust.

  2. Paul Icini

    Given that there are in fact now two Labour parties, with utterly different policies, it’s hard to know which will end up being implemented if they are elected. Labour members are subject to whips just like other parties. Having studied the UKIP manifesto and the comments from their new spokesmen I can see nothing objectionable and since most members are no longer ex Tories they appear to be a better bet for the working man than anyone else’s, especially for those of us who wish to leave the EU.

  3. Peter Kenny

    It seems unlikely that leave eu have discovered some miraculous new technique which professional polling organisations have missed.

    As for Labout being two parties UKIP strike me as being barely a party at all at the top – witness people rolling around fighting at the EU parliament and their amazing leadership elections. More of a desperate cabal looking for another source of income now the EU parliament is over for us.

    Farage himself called them ‘low grade people’ and who are we to argue – he knows them better than us.

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