Conservatives score 18-point lead over Labour

The dire polling numbers will cause jitters in Stoke and Copeland


Just days before the key by-elections in Stoke and Copeland, a new ICM/Guardian poll puts the Conservatives 18-points ahead of Labour nationwide.

Although a lead of this size is not unprecedented, ICM has only recorded three larger leads in its 34-year history, two of which were in 1983 — immediately before Margaret Thatcher flattened Michael Foot.

In the current term, one other poll — published by Ipsos MORI last October — has given the Tories an 18-point lead.

Moreover, Labour is ‘within touching distance of its floor’. In ICM/Guardian polls, the party has only dropped to 25 per cent twice, in 2008 and 2009 when Gordon Brown was battling the worst of the financial crisis.

Here are the full figures:

Con 44% (+2)

Lab 26% (-1)

UKIP 13% (+1)

Lib Dem 8% (-2)

Green 4% (nc)

SNP 4% (-1)

PC *% (-1)

Other 1% (+1)

In the same poll, 42 per cent of respondents said that the rights of EU citizens in the UK should not be guaranteed until EU states make a reciprocal commitment to their British residents.

However, almost as many (41 per cent) responded that guaranteeing their residency is the right thing to do, and could benefit the UK in negotiations.

See: The debilitation of Labour is facilitating Brexit

See: One day without us: Britain should lead the way by giving EU nationals the right to stay

Like this article? Sign up to Left Foot Forward's weekday email for the latest progressive news and comment - and support campaigning journalism by making a donation today.

5 Responses to “Conservatives score 18-point lead over Labour”

  1. Martyn Wood-Bevan

    If Labour continues to be seen as divided then poll ratings will continue to stay low. At least the Tories are better at appearing united and are much better at being downright dishonest, backed up by the BBC and the MSM who are happy to produce a mixture of fake news and exaggerated opinions which the unthinking simply lap up. Identifying with the aggressor is the most common way in which people feel better about themselves, sadly. At the same time the Tories are wrecking everything that we hold dear and ruining many people’s lives.

  2. Jimmy Glesga

    Labour need to rid themselves of Corbyn, Milne, Abbott, McDonnell etc and move on. I suspect the aforementioned are coining in the public dosh and laughing. They know the British do not want socialism and they do not want it.

  3. Michael WALKER

    Well what a surprise.Party elects as a Leader man who despises his country, will not sing the National Anthem, supports terrorists and basically could not organise a drinking session in a brewery.

    And the public and voters react by not liking him..

    Who would have thought that?

  4. Mike Stallard

    Mrs May is beginning to show a few mistakes up. She messed up her Stoke visit by playing with some little girls when she ought to have been making one of her sensible speeches. She has a far too tight control over her ministers through her two gate keepers who are getting well above themselves and that makes them indecisive and weak. Finally she has not got a clue about Brexit as will soon become apparent.
    If – if only – Mr Corbyn was a natural leader who could be bothered with this blog:
    and who could lead us forward out of the EU and into a safe space like EFTA for the time being, then Labour would sweep the polls again.

  5. Storm in a teacup? Why the Stoke and Copeland by-elections matter | Left Foot Forward

    […] But then, in normal circumstances MPs like Jamie Reed and Tristram Hunt don’t resign their seats because they feel they can contribute more elsewhere. And not since the dark days of the early 80s has Labour lagged so badly, and so consistently, in nationwide opinion polls. […]

Leave a Reply