A leadership election may be the only way to break the deadlock, but its outcome is far from clear
Image: John McDonnell
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the only way to break the Labour Party deadlock will be to put the decision to the members in a leadership election.
Corbyn has been hit by nearly 50 resignations in the last two days and today faces a no confidence ballot, in which up to 70 per cent of his colleagues are expected to vote against him.
Cynics would say that Corbyn’s intransigence is simply a ploy to save his own skin, either by forcing the PLP to back down rather than engaging in another bruising and possibly humiliating leadership contest or, if they do insist on triggering an election, by actually humiliating them with another huge victory.
His supporters would argue that the leader has never enjoyed the support of his colleagues, that the PLP no longer effectively represents the will of the party membership and that Corbyn’s concern is actually not for himself, but for the members who deserve to have their views represented.
According to the cynical view, Corbyn is extremely confident that he still has the support of members and will use it to shout down his colleagues.
According to the more idealistic view, Corbyn believes he has the support of members but, even if he doesn’t, is willing to risk his leadership to ensure the decision is democratically made.
As for his colleagues, many report that in recent days the mood of the party has shifted and that ordinary members, as well as cabinet members, have lost confidence in Corbyn because he did not represent their interests and values on the EU.
For months, Europe has been a point of difference between Corbyn and the Corbynistas, who are more enthusiastic about the EU than he is.
Senior members of the Remain campaign suggest that his grudging support for EU membership was primarily driven by a need to align his views with those of his young supporters.
Indeed, a poll of Labour Party members conducted in February showed that 82 per cent of those who voted for Corbyn in the last leadership election also supported remaining in the EU.
Labour’s future now depends on those people. Some of them had probably lost confidence in Corbyn even before the referendum.
For another segment, the shock of Brexit will have drastically shifted their view of Labour politics and of Corbyn.
Both these groups will be ready to flip, provided that a convincing alternative leader is put forward.
And then there is a segment of Labour Party members (many also Momentum members) who cannot be swayed, who will vote for Corbyn in any circumstance.
John McDonnell claims that 10,000 of these people crowded into Parliament Square last night, proving that Corbyn is ‘going nowhere’.
But 10,000 (even if that many actually attended) is a small fraction of Labour’s membership of nearly 400,000.
Last summer Corbyn was given an overwhelming democratic mandate, and perhaps he is right to respect that mandate until it becomes absolutely clear that it no longer exists.
But that day could come sooner than he expects.
Niamh Ní Mhaoileoin is editor of Left Foot Forward.
22 Responses to “Is Corbyn’s mandate as robust as he thinks it is?”
pete bowler
10,000 may be small in comparison to 400,000 but it’s 10,000 more than have paraded in support of Benn et al
Sam Saunders
YouGov were conducting an on-line line survey about the range and nature of support for Corbyn and the alternatives yesterday. Seeing the results would be very interesting.
Bill Redmond
This is the most sensible comment I’ve yet seen about this situation. I voted for Corbyn, and there is no policy on which I disagree with him. I also think the actual voting patterns of Labour voters in the referendum is largely irrelevant to the question of his leadership. It was obvious to anyone who has campaigned in Labour seats that many of our voters made up their minds some time ago to vote Leave, and we’re not going to be deterred. The reason I now think he should resign is, first, he has no obvious talent for leading the opposition, and insufficient of the electorate see him as a potential prime minister. Second, while it’s possible to see some of the opposition to him as sour grapes and frustrated ambition, the sheer number of MPs who oppose him suggests that the problem goes much deeper than that. These people work with him every day, and if he can’t win their confidence the chances of winning an election, which we must do if we’re to put a brake on the destructive forces at large in this country, are nil.
Paul Surita
Corbyn won’t be going anywhere as long as he can buy the Union’s block votes with promises like the £137 billion of public money to build Trident submarines with no missiles to go in them.
Rodrigo Correa
Leadership is about defining reality then unifying. “The first responsibility of a leader is to define reality. The last is to say thank you. In between, the leader is a servant” Jeremet Corbyn has and contine to define Austerity Britain and it’s challenges. Also top economists are agreeing with him. However its the careerist people within Westminster village with over confidence that are sounding him out. Shame on them.