87 per cent of politics experts predict win for Remain

Just five per cent of academics, journalists and pollsters believe that Britain will vote to Leave


Academics, journalists and pollsters overwhelmingly predict that the UK will vote to stay in the European Union according to new research.

The study, conducted by Will Jennings and Stephen Fisher for the UK Political Studies Association, found that 87 per cent of respondents said that the Remain campaign is more likely to win with just five per cent believing the Vote Leave effort will be victorious on 23 June.

The remaining eight per cent argued that the two sides have an equal chance of winning.

While the overwhelming majority of respondents felt that the UK would stay in the EU, they nevertheless believed that there was a 38 per cent probability of Vote Leave winning.

On average, respondents felt that Remain would win with 55 per cent of the vote compared to 45 per cent for Leave, mirroring the results of the independence referendum in Scotland which continues to loom large over the EU campaign.

The average prediction for turnout at the referendum was 61 per cent, below the 66 per cent achieved in the General Election next year and the 85 per cent turnout at the time of the Scottish referendum.

Will Jennings, Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of Southampton and Trustee of the Political Studies Association commented:

“Experts from the worlds of academia, opinion polling, and the media overwhelmingly think that Remain are likely to win this month’s referendum, but their predictions suggest the result is still in doubt. On average they think there is a 38 per cent chance Britain will vote to leave the EU.

“Our experts are not convinced that the referendum campaign has fully captured public interest, as they are predicting turnout that is over 20 percentage points lower than that for the Scottish Independence referendum.”

Meanwhile, with Jeremy Corbyn in Cardiff today, former Labour Cabinet Minister, and head of the Welsh Labour In Campaign, Lord Peter Hain, has warned that while lots of activity might be taking place, Labour supporter remain confused still about where they party stands on the EU.

Echoing concerns expressed by Tim Roache, head of the GMB Union, Hain has told BBC Wales:

“There is a great deal of confusion about what the Labour position is. There is a lot of activity going on but we need to do more.

“This is the right time to be really engaging people. We need to step up the pace. We need to have a major Labour drive, and that is what all our efforts are going to. Where that is happening, I am very confident about it. This is definitely winnable.”

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor at Left Foot Forward

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