Remain holds its lead but undecideds cast doubt on predictions

48 per cent believe that David Cameron should resign if the UK votes for Brexit

Remain has retained an eight point lead in the latest EU referendum poll, published by Ipsos Mori.

Almost half (49 per cent) of respondents indicated a preference for Remain, compared to 43 per cent who indicated support for Leave. However, when likelihood to vote is added as a filter, the margin narrows by six points to 48-46.

This reinforces Cameron’s warning that the UK could ‘sleepwalk’ out of Europe as a result of low turnout.

That’s especially bad news for the prime minister himself, since 48 per cent of respondents believe that he should resign if Britain votes to leave, against 43 per cent who believe he should stay on.  

Responses to this question break down along party lines — just 34 per cent of Conservatives believe he should quit in the event of a Brexit vote, compared to 56 per cent of Labour supporters and 70 per cent of UKIP voters.

Ipsos Mori has also attempted to determine the validity of the ‘Project Fear’ accusations being thrown from both sides. Interestingly, 51 per cent of voters with a stated preference said they were more motivated by hope than by fear.

hopeful fearful

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos Mori, commented:

“David Cameron is crucial to the remain side campaign as the most important politician to how people will vote, but the flip side of this is that many Britons think his premiership should end if the country votes for Brexit. Meanwhile, remain keeps a narrow lead over leave, but it gets narrower still when we just look at those who say they are most likely to vote.”

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