Tories creep up on Labour in Scotland

The Conservatives are on course to pick up 21 seats in May


The SNP continue their dominance north of the border, according to new polling out today.

With less than 100 days to go until elections to the Scottish Parliament, the first TNS poll of 2016 reports the voting intentions of those expressing a preference and who say they are certain to vote.

On the constituency vote, the data puts the SNP on 57% per cent of the vote followed by Labour on 21 per cent, the Conservatives on 17 per cent, Lib Dems on 3 per cent and other parties on 2 per cent.

In the regional vote, the SNP are on 52 per cent followed by Labour on 19 per cent, the Conservatives on 17 per cent, the Lib Dems on 3 per cent and the Greens on 6% per cent.

According to the Scotland Votes website, applied universally, such results would see the SNP increase their tally of seats from 69 to 76 whilst the number of Labour MSPs would fall from the 37 secured in 2011 to just 26.

The Conservatives meanwhile would pick up 21 seats (up 6) with the Lib Dems on just 1 seat (down 4). The number of Green MSPs would increase by 3 to 5.

TNS also asked those surveyed in Scotland how they would vote in the forthcoming referendum on EU membership. It found that 21 per cent would vote to leave, up from the 19 per cent who said the same in May last year and 18 per cent in September.

44 per cent said they would vote to remain in the EU, down from 49 per cent in May 2015 and 47 per cent in September last year.

29 per cent do not know how they would vote.

Commenting on the findings Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland, said,

“With the referendum on membership of the EU looking increasingly likely to take place in 2016, people may be starting to focus on Britain’s membership of the European Union, despite concerns expressed by the first minister about holding the referendum in June so soon after elections to the devolved assemblies.

“With such a high level of ‘Don’t Knows’ it’s still all to play for, and there remains a positive view of the European Union in Scotland.”

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor at Left Foot Forward

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