Support for EU membership wafer thin

Voters don't trust the EU to implement Cameron's deal, new poll suggests

Public support for staying in the European Union remains wafer thin, with many not trusting EU leaders to abide by their commitments according to new data published today.

The poll, carried out by BMG Research for the Evening Standard, sees 41 per cent of respondents claiming they will vote to leave the EU, compared to 44 per cent who plan to remain. 15 per cent are undecided.  Among Conservatives, a majority, 51 per cent want to leave compared with 39 per cent who plan to vote to remain inside the Union.

While 36 per cent of those questioned revealed that the way they plan to vote has been influenced to some extent by David Cameron’s deal in Brussels last week, just 22 per cent express trust for other EU leaders to stick to the deal and change European treaties in order to make the PM’s deal legally binding.

17 per cent said that they trust the European Commission to come up with detailed proposals after the referendum is over in such a way that it delivers the agreement in full, compared to 56 per cent who do not trust the Commission.

And only 15 per cent trust the European Parliament to pass the legislation that would implement the deal without watering it down.

Asked if the Prime Minister had secured a ‘good deal’ in the late night negotiations last week, just 13 per cent said that he had. 42 per cent indicated that it was a poor deal and 45 per cent did not know.

Commenting on the findings, BMG Research Director, Dr Michael Turner, said:

“It should be noted that differential turnout will be an important factor in deciding the referendum, so understanding the views of key groups that are likely and unlikely to turn out will be critical to understand how the result may settle, and how to motivate others to turn out also. A clear majority (54 per cent) of those who said they will definitely vote at the EU referendum said that they don’t think the reforms negotiated will actually reduce overall migration from the EU to the UK. In addition, more than two thirds (68 per cent) of definite voters think that the European parliament will water down any deal made – not delivering all of it.”

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