The Conservatives could soon be the second largest party in the Scottish Parliament
There are now just 100 days to go until Scotland votes on the makeup of the new parliament at Holyrood, and the gloomy outlook for Scottish Labour is becoming difficult for its leaders to hide.
According to new polling published over the weekend, the Conservatives are now snapping at the heels of Scottish Labour to become the second largest party in the Scottish Parliament.
The data, compiled by Panelbase for the Sunday Times and Heart FM, puts the SNP on 50 per cent of the vote in the constituency section and 48 per cent for the regional vote.
Scottish Labour have dropped two percentage points to 21 per cent in the constituency vote and are down three points to 19 per cent on the regional list section of the ballot.
The Scottish Conservatives, led by Ruth Davidson, are on 17 per cent for both the constituency and regional list vote, while the Liberal Democrats languish on 6 per cent for the constituency vote and 7 per cent for the regional list section.
The Green Party finds itself on 3 per cent for the constituency and 5 per cent for the regional list section of the ballot paper.
According to the Scotland Votes website, such figures would see the SNP win 74 seats in the new parliament, 4 more than they won in 2011 on a truly historic night.
The Labour Party are, based on these figures, on course to lose 11 of the seats they won in 2011, down to just 26, with the Tories on 20, 5 more than they won in 2011.
The Lib Dems are set to secure 6 seats and the Greens 3.
The Panelbase figures also show that while Nicola Sturgeon remains by far the most popular politician in Scotland, with a net approval rating of +23, Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale is performing even worse than her predecessor Jim Murphy, languishing on a net approval rating of -13.
In contrast, Ruth Davidson for the Conservatives has a net approval of -9. Even Willie Rennie, leader of the Scottish Lib Dems, is ahead of Ms Dugdale with a net approval rating of -12.
Further figures compiled by Rob Ford of Manchester University suggest that Labour are on track to lose all 15 of their consituency seats held at Holyrood.
Based on the most recent polling, Ford calculates that Labour are 11 per cent down on their 2011 levels of support, while the SNP are up 8 per cent. He explained:
“A result in line with these polls would see 13 constituency seats fall to the SNP, while two further seats would be tight races between the SNP and the Conservatives with Labour coming third.
“Labour’s position may be even worse than the aggregate polling suggests, as their safest remaining seats tend to be in areas such as Glasgow and central Scotland, where swings to the SNP in the general election were largest … A constituency wipeout for Scottish Labour in 2016 would complete an extraordinary political collapse for a party which dominated Scotland at all levels just a decade ago.”
Speaking on the Andrew Marr programme yesterday, SNP leader and first minister Nicola Sturgeon could not resist a dig at Labour’s misfortunes, saying she did not think a Labour government was now ‘a credible notion in any sense’.
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor at Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter
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47 Responses to “Has Labour lost Scotland for good?”
Richard MacKinnon
There may be only 56 SNP MPs but they are providing a stronger more disciplined opposition than Labour.
Labour are a comedy turn. The front bench Jeremy, John, Emily, Dianne. All the sour faces on the back benches, teeth grinding in unison. It is the best show in town. Please don’t stop the party.
David Lindsay
54. Two are on the way to jail. There will be more to come.
Scottish Scientist
Scottish Labour have done too little, too late, agreed.
However, were Scottish Labour to move decisively in favour of independence, even outflank the SNP
– on independence – by
* becoming a truly independent Scottish Labour party
* rejecting the Edinburgh Agreement (which the people of Edinburgh never agreed to) opposing it as unjust because it gives 100% of Scotland to the UK on only 55% of the vote
* calling for the immediate establish of an independent Scottish state on the basis of the 45% who voted YES, whose sovereign territory would initially comprise the 4 council areas where a majority voted YES
* paint the SNP as timid on pushing for independence for sticking to the Edinburgh Agreement, betraying the 45% of YES voters and surrendering 100% of Scotland to the UK
– on the left – by
* more radical policies across the board – land reform, wealth tax, trade union law, a republic
* declaring membership of the Queen’s privy council as incompatible with Scottish Labour membership forcing the likes of these “Red Tories” to choose who they are with – the Scottish people or the Queen
If those “Red Tory” privy councillors resigned the Privy Council or were expelled from Scottish Labour for not resigning from the Privy Council – this would demonstrate a fresh start for Scottish Labour – that it really was the people’s party in comparison to the SNP which would presumably still have Privy Council members Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmond and Angus Robertson.
Then Scottish Labour could paint the SNP as Queen’s lackeys and betraying the rights of the Scots to establish an independent Scottish republic.
In summary, if Scottish Labour could make these policy changes and outflank the SNP on independence and on the left – by being seen to more strongly support independence and the Scottish people’s rights to land ownership, wealth redistribution, trade union rights and rights to a republic, I believe that would indeed be a way back.
Now if you keep saying “no way back” it is simply because you haven’t bothered to read and understand what I have written.
Derick Tulloch
Nobody has forgotten the Red Tories high fiving the Blue Tories on referendum night. Nobody has forgotten Gordon Browns tosh. He and “Lord” Darling are off counting their money now. a hundred thousand activists are going to work till they drop to be rid of “Labour”
Ryan Malcolm McGuinness
How about no.