UKIP on course to gain 9 seats in Welsh Assembly elections

The party are on course to enter the Assembly for the first time in May in substantial numbers


UKIP are on course to gain 9 seats in the Welsh Assembly next year, according to new polling.

According to the latest Welsh Political Barometer, a collaboration between the Wales Governance Centre, ITV Wales and YouGov, Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership troubles are now coming home to roost in Wales ahead of next year’s elections to the Assembly.

“Any honeymoon period for the new leader looks to be quite definitely over”, concludes Roger Scully, Professor of Political Science at Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre.

Asked how they would vote in a General Election, 37 per cent of those polled said Labour, down five percentage points since the last Barometer in September, reversing the five point increase recorded for the party at that time.

The Conservatives in Wales are on 27 per cent (up one point), UKIP are up one point to 17 per cent whilst Plaid Cymru stand on 12 per cent (up two points). The Liberal Democrats in Wales slip a point to 4 per cent whilst other parties are on 3 per cent.

With elections to the Welsh Assembly next May however, it is these figures that provide perhaps the most interesting reading.

People were also asked how they would vote in the constituency list section of the ballot. These answers show that Labour are on 35 per cent (down four points), the Conservatives are unchanged on 23 per cent and Plaid Cymru on 20 per cent (up two  percentage points).

UKIP are up two points to 15 per cent whilst the Lib Dems are on 5 per cent (down one point). Other parties are on 3 per cent.

According to Roger Scully, if replicated evenly across Wales, such figures would see the Conservatives gain Cardiff North, Plaid Cymru gain Llanelli, and the Liberal Democrats gain Cardiff Central. All three of these seats are currently held by Labour in the Assembly.

Voters were asked also how they would vote in the regional list section of the ballot. The results put Labour on 34 per cent (unchanged since September), the Conservatives on 23 per cent (down one percentage point) and Plaid Cymru unchanged on 18 per cent.

UKIP are up two points to 16 per cent with the Liberal Democrats on 4 per cent (down one point) and the Greens and other parties unchanged on 4 per cent and 2 per centrespectively.

According to Roger Scully, taking the constituency and regional list votes together, this would see UKIP doing well in Wales. Based on uniform swings, the polling suggests that:

  • Labour would win 27 seats (25 constituency seats + 2 list seats) – down three on their current tally of 30 seats.
  • Conservatives would secure 12 seats (7 constituency seats + 5 list seats) – down two on their current number of AMs.
  • Plaid Cymru would lose one seat to gain 10 seats in total (6 constituency seats + 4 list seats)
  • UKIP would come from nowhere to win 9 seats (9 list seats)
  • Liberal Democrats would lose three seats to pick up just 2 seats (2 constituency seats)

In his analysis of the results, whilst observing that Labour ‘remain some way ahead of the field’, Roger Scully notes that these figures show a notable decline in support  for the party since September. He continues:

“The main thing to jump out from these findings, however, is that UKIP are currently projected to win nine list seats in the Assembly: two in every region of Wales except for South Wales West.

“We should note that these list seat calculations are subject to change on quite small variations in support: with only small changes in public preferences UKIP might be projected to win several fewer seats. But at the moment, the party are on course to enter the Assembly for the first time in May in substantial numbers – within one seat of Plaid Cymru and three of the Conservatives.”

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor at Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter

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7 Responses to “UKIP on course to gain 9 seats in Welsh Assembly elections”

  1. Selohesra


  2. David McKendrick

    And we all know how accurate polls are at predicting election results. I thought that Ukip were supposed to challenge Labour at the recent by-election????


    The postal vote where someone comes around and shows you where to put your x may not be all that prevelent in Wales.

  4. treborc

    When you have a one party nation as Wales is, your bound to get people thinking why bother voting, my constituency is expected to go to Plaid after what 17 years labour, but labour has not done so good of late, they are now fighting back by saying they will give £250 million to the NHS, it needs about a Billion just to keep going as it is. We have 380,000 people in Wales do not have dental treatment and that is down to labour lack of interest but I sure as hell will not be voting labour in wales..

    People are tired on having a one party nation we need to get somebody who will get close sadly once they do labour takes them into coalition and they get blamed for any issues, as plaid did and as the Liberals did.

    But I keep hearing year after year the next election will see UKIP get this many seats or this many MP’s and we end up seeing sod all.

    Will UKIP win any seats for the Assemblies nope they will not, will labour win the next election with a majority well they have not done so in seventeen years , they have worked with coalitions or with the backing of a party as it is now with Plaid shoring it up. labour will win the next election in second place will be the Tories third will be plaid and fourth will be either independents or Liberals .

    Wales for this election will win with a coalition which has already been agreed with Plaid or the Liberals, but the following election in four years time will be the first one after the new boundary changes and with the loss of councils and smaller constituencies which are labour strong holds and this is not even with the Tories boundary changes it will be interesting times.

  5. treborc

    It’s not actually then again is it in England.

  6. Intolerant_Liberal

    Unfortunately, outside Planet London, Wales is probably seen as small potatoes. The Labour party abandoned the working class in the North, took the Scottish vote completely for granted, so most people who were traditional Labour voters realised that voting for a basically London centred right of centre party appealing to wealthy middle class people was not going to be looking after their interests. If the Labour party wants to get people involved again, they need to be more democratic, stop parachuting affluent London MPs into constituencies in the North and elsewhere, and present themselves as a credible alternative to Posh Rich Boy London Party, and their virulent attack on the poor, disabled, marginalised, disenfranchised…er basically anyone who isn’t posh rich and white and living in the affluent parts of London, and if a load of so called Left wingers can’t rise to that, they might as well give up. They also need some more passionate working class MPs, certainly educated and self made, but who know what it’s like to live in the real world outside of Planet Politics, and who have struggled in crap jobs like the vast majority of us. There is the small beginnings of this in Corbyn, but he needs to be more pragmatic. Holding to every high minded principle is good, but if it keep you out of power, it’s irrelevant. LISTEN TO ORDINARY PEOPLE AND THEIR CONCERNS, WOULD BE A START FOR YOU ALL. The Tories aren’t listening to anyone but their paymasters.

  7. Sid

    Labour will have to get those sweatshops of postal voters in Pakistan working again !!!

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