Latest poll shows more than half of Scots will vote for the nationalists next year
New polling reveals that support for the SNP is continuing to grow in Scotland, a month after they secured an historic landslide at the election.
According to the data, compiled by TNS, of those certain to vote in next year’s elections to Holyrood, 60 per cent said they would vote for the SNP in the constituency section of the ballot.
This would represent a 10 percentage point increase on the share of the vote it secured in Scotland in the General Election and a 15 percentage point increase on the share of the vote it secured in the constituency section at the 2011 Scottish parliamentary elections.
Scottish Labour, currently in the midst of a leadership contest, has polled 19 per cent on the constituency vote, down by almost 13 percentage points on its performance in 2011. The Conservatives are on 15 per cent (up one point, while the Lib Dems have sunk to just 3 per cent of the vote, down by almost 5 percentage points compared with the last elections to Holyrood.
Under the additional member electoral systems used to elect MSP, in addition to voting for a constituency MSP, voters are also asked to cast a vote for a political party in their region. List MSPs are allocated accordingly in order to balance out under-representation of parties by the first-past-the-post constituency poll.
On the constituency poll the SNP are, according to TNS, on 50 per cent of the vote, up 6 percentage points compared to 2011. Labour are on 19 per cent (down by just over 7 points), the Conservatives are on 14 per cent (down just over 1.5 points) and the Lib Dems are on just 5 per cent of the vote, roughly the same as their 2011 performance.
Continuing the post referendum bounce meanwhile, 78 per cent of voters told TNS that they were either certain or very likely to vote in next year’s election, up from the 50 per cent turnout seen in the 2011 elections.
43 per cent of respondents indicated that they felt the UK General Election result made independence more likely, with 39 per cent saying it made no difference.
Asked how they would vote in a referendum on EU membership, 49 per cent of Scottish voters said they would vote to stay in, with just 19 per cent wanting to leave. 26 per cent said they had not decided how to vote on the issue.
Commenting on the results Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland said:
“Clearly there is a long way to go until the Scottish parliament elections, so it is too early to tell whether the rise in support for the SNP represents a continuing trend, or whether it reflects a “honeymoon” period with the party’s new Westminster MPs.
“The strong support for continuing EU membership may reflect both this factor and the strong advocacy by Nicola Sturgeon, who remains a popular figure: the case for the EU has yet to be tested in the full-blown political campaign that will precede the referendum.”
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor at Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter
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18 Responses to “The SNP giant continues to grow”
Mark Fletcher
If Stalin lived in Scotland, who might he vote for?
Certainly not the Labour party.
Harold
I watched Question Time this week, on the panel was a SNP newly elected MP, forgive me I do not recall the ladys name, but it highlighted one point which I think one day will rise to the top. The MP was clearly not a socialist or an internationalist, but there again would I expect that from a Nationalist? I have heard and read some speeches from new SNP MP’s who are clearly socialist or at least left wing, my point is that at some point have people with right wing and left wing views in the same organisation will lead to the inevitable infighting. I would suggest not yet but when the first set back or big policy disagreement arrives will be the test. Look at the Conservative and Labour Parties with their “wings” and I dare suggest they are closer together as a whole. I understand from press comments the new intake of SNP MP’s includes, ex-Marxists and Conservatives along with people who could be unaligned, I am fascinated to see how this will progress and I would predict one or more will cross the floor at some point. Equally the ex Labour and Liberal voters in Scotland maybe happy voting SNP but will that remain true if they discover the person elected does not share their political views?
Harold
Which Party in Scotland had the backing of the Murdoch press? I will not even buy a Murdoch paper, let alone vote for a party he approves of, shame.
Jim Bennett
Until very recently, the Labour Party, who’s affection for Murdoch can be seen in these links:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/3541842/Red-Ed-is-dead-says-Miliband.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/phone-hacking/8638614/The-great-Murdoch-conspiracy.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/05/print-media-elections-newspapers-candidates_n_7212292.html
Harold, I have never bought a Murdoch title in my life. I have also not been a cheerleader for the murder of hundreds of thousands of innocent men, women and children as Labour Party members are.
Focus your attention on the real enemy – The Blue Tories and their Red counterparts infiltrating Labour.
Harold
Glad to see you do not buy Murdoch, though it was not the question I posed no one buys the S** in Liverpool either. I am not a cheerleader for the murder of innocents unlike the Murdoch press, but as much as you might protest if you sup with the devil get a long spoon.