The road to Downing Street will only be secured by winning back Conservative swing voters
With Labour’s leadership contest now firmly underway, those vying for the top job would do well to sit down and read a sober analysis of the mountain that the party has to climb to get back into government in 2020.
Prepared by Andrew Harrop, general secretary of the Fabian Society, ‘The mountain to climb: Labour’s 2020 challenge’ outlines the scale of the task facing the party.
Firstly, on the basis that the Conservatives proceed with plans to cut the number of seats in the Commons, based on the 2013 boundary review, Harrop concludes that Labour would need to pick up an additional 106 seats in order to gain a majority of one. (N.B for ease of comparison the report has ‘scaled-up these projections, to assume the new House of Commons retains 650 constituencies’.)
When looking at seats by order of majority, seat 106 would be taking back Gordon Brown’s former constituency of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath. Somewhat soberly, however, the analysis adds:
“This estimate could be over-optimistic for Labour, as the new boundary review which will commence this December could prove even less favourable than the last one (particularly because it will be expected to equalise the number of electors on the basis of the new electoral roll, following the introduction of individual registration). So 106 gains is the minimum that might be needed for victory, compared to the 68 that Labour needed for a majority this year.”
Secondly, Labour’s 35 per cent strategy during the General Election campaign is well and truly shredded. According to Harrop, to form a majority government of one Labour would need a universal swing of 9.5 percentage points as opposed to the 4.6 point swing that was required this year. This would mean Labour needing to secure around 40 per cent of the vote share. The report notes:
“In 2005 Labour won a 66 seat majority with 35 per cent of the vote, while now it may well need 40 per cent to have any majority at all. By contrast, after the boundary changes, the Conservatives will be able to retain their majority with around 36 per cent of the vote.”
But all of this is predicated on an improvement in fortunes across the UK as a whole. If Scottish Labour were to make no inroads into the SNP at all, with all 106 seats needed having to be picked up in England, Labour would need a swing of around 11.5 percentage points in key marginal seats.
Thirdly, the road to Downing Street will only be secured by winning back Conservative swing voters. As the report notes, the opportunities to pick up Lib Dem, Green and disgruntled UKIP voters are limited. As it explains, unlike in 2015, ‘there appear to be few opportunities to benefit from the misfortunes’.
Whilst the number crunching suggests that eliminating a Conservative majority to achieve a hung Parliament looks ‘relatively achievable…the task of winning a UK Labour majority will be very difficult’.
Based on this report, ‘very difficult’ looks to be at the more optimistic end of the language that could be used to describe Labour’s predicament.
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter
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30 Responses to “New analysis points to scale of Labour’s challenge”
Peter Martin
The Tories won less than 25% of the votes cast in May. Labour about 20%. So that leaves 55% of the electorate, including those who didn’t vote at all. who didn’t vote for either.
So how about a strategy, in 2020 of NOT appealing to the Tory 25%? Instead we consolidate our 20% by proposing traditional Labour polices and we aim to win over at least one in five of that 55%. We don’t give anyone an excuse for not voting on the basis that “we’re all the same”.
If we do that we’re home and dry.
AlanGiles
The best advice for any leader is to be yourself. Stop mouthing platitudes. If you want to be London Mayor stop trying to sound like the Queen, and don’t dress up in women’s clothing and lipstick if you are of the male sex.
Trying to be a pale copy of the Tories is pointless – if the public want the Tories they vote for the real thing, not a cheap copy. As happened last month.
AlanGiles
Not every benefit claimaint is on “Benefits Street” or displaying their dirty washing on the scabrous Jeremy Kyle show. There ARE scroungers and they need to be dealt with, but then again there were “expenses scroungers” (“expenses” sounds nicer doesn’t it?) – people like James Purnell. David Laws, Hazel Blears and Iain Duncan-Smith were the epitome of those – and the most vocal critics of “scroungers”
AlanGiles
Ian, I think the truth is Blair was a Conservative, but also a very good actor and a con-man. I don’t think any of his acolytes would do well now, because once a confidence trickster is exposed people resist those he was around, and are wary of late converts to his cause.
What concerns me for Labour (I now vote Green so their worries are not mine) is they paid an enormous sum of money to David Axelrod, who gave his no doubt sage advice from America by email mostly, Jon Cruddas was despatched for three years of purdah to write his review (which was either unpublished or not publicised), now Cruddas is launching a review of why his review failed, and, not to be outdone, Haughty Hattie has launched a second review by has-been Maggie Beckett.
What they need to do is accept they lost and try to do better next time. They are wasting the early months of opposition (often a crucial time) in these school debating-society-like tactics. I can’t imagine Harold Wilson getting George Brown or Patrick Gordon-Walker to waste their time reviewing a review.
AlanGiles
I think a large section of the PLP are a bit like the Tories who between 1990 and 2001 felt if only Mrs T came back all their troubles would end. So many Progressites still living in 1997 when “Things can only get bett-ar”, and all they need is Kendall to be Blair in bloomers and all their troubles are over. Sadly the answers of 1997 – the rancid nonsense of “triangulation” and the dissembling nnsense of “the Third Way” will not make the cut in 2020 – things can only get worse.