Even if Nicola Sturgeon holds back, Scotland could be sidelined into going it alone
It is perhaps apt that David Cameron and Nick Clegg will be finishing their final dash across the country in Scotland later today.
In an election where caution has been the order of the day, with none of the main parties wanting to rock the boat in the face of close polling, it is Scotland which has come to dominate in a way few ever anticipated.
What began in 1999 with the creation of the Scottish Parliament has given the SNP the base upon which all its dreams and aspirations have slowly been built.
By 2007, under the leadership, for the second time, of Alex Salmond, the SNP found themselves running a minority government which lasted the full four-year term. Crucially, it also gave them an insight into how opposition parties can best gain influence over policy.
Then came 2011. Defying the logic of a voting system designed to prevent it, the SNP managed to secure an outright majority of seats at Holyrood.
Making a net gain of 23 seats on the constituency vote Scottish Labour, once the natural party of Scotland, lost 20 of its 35 constituency seats north of the border. It was a devastating blow that pointed to something much bigger in the pipeline.
Last September Scotland voted against independence, but Labour have remained weak north of the border.
The electorate in Scotland has engaged with the political process like no other part of the country. SNP membership has surged to over 100,000, whilst the polling for Nicola Sturgeon personally and the SNP more widely has been eye watering.
If Labour suffers the kind of disaster north of the border that polling predicts, it will be because of a sense that the party has taken Scottish voters for granted for too long.
A party once led by Scottish big beasts such as Gordon Brown, Donald Dewar, John Smith and Robin Cook has seen a brain drain, with its biggest talent now focused in Westminster rather than Holyrood. It is telling that when the party found itself in need of a new leader following Johann Lamont’s resignation, it was to Westminster that eyes turned.
Step forward Jim Murphy. His energy and enthusiasm is clear for all to see and yet it has made little difference. Indeed, if the polling is to be believed then the SNP lead is only increasing.
If Scotland votes en-masse for the SNP tomorrow it will have profound implications for the future of the Union.
Publicly the SNP have sought to argue that this election is not about independence. But the rhetoric of the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Labour is such that they could end up side-lining Scotland into going it alone almost by accident (or on purpose in the case of the Tories).
Rather than seeking to punish and marginalise Scottish voters for daring to vote for a different party, Miliband, Cameron and Clegg must ask themselves why it is that none of them can muster anywhere near the support needed to form a majority government.
The tough answer to such an analysis might then dawn on them all: that this is the election that has exposed the deep and unhealthy mistrust of the ‘main’ political parties. The question is can they – will they – be able to restore the trust?
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter
10 Responses to “Is this the election that will fracture the union?”
uglyfatbloke
The Holyrood system was specifically designed to prevent the SNP from ever becoming the biggest party; Lord McConnell and Lord Wallace told us so; since they chose the system I think we should believe them.
uglyfatbloke
The point of devolution was to protect Labour and the glib-dumbs from the gnats and the tories – eventually – signed up for it so they would n’t be completely bereft of representation in Scotland.
Leon Wolfeson
You were shocked by principles? Okay.
You are saying that the concept of the union is a scare story. That it belittles and insults Scots to not be your fear-filled separatists, as you promote right-wing borders. You evidently hate Britain, and the British, and can’t accept the democratic vote.
Your right wing of the SNP are not and never have been the core Labour vote.
Liz O'neill
You deliberately misinterpreted the previous comment, it wasn’t the union that was the cause of the fear, it was the blatant lies to our pensioners, telling them they would get no pension and their bank accounts would be emptied in the case of a yes vote, I could go on but there is little point, the scots don’t hate Britain or the British, seems project fear didn’t just affect the scots, you swallowed the scots hate us bit, hook line and sinker. What the scots do hate, is Westminster, polotitions we didn’t vote for deciding our future. And since all parties in Westminster said they wouldn’t work with Scottish democratically elected MPs. It would appear we are in the right.
Leon Wolfeson
I know what you want me to believe. I simply don’t fall for your Propaganda, as you pish your fear of the British – and claim that your expressed hatreds here are not really real, ohnoes!
You are *to* the right, certainly.