Obsessive focus on poll results is quietly shelved when Labour is ahead
A snap Survation poll for the Mirror newspaper has found that 35 per cent of respondents said Ed Miliband ‘won’ last night’s BBC debate, giving him a clear victory over his rival party leaders.
Who do you think “won” the debate? Survation for @DailyMirror pic.twitter.com/enDDIhTVwu
— Survation. (@Survation) April 16, 2015
But you wouldn’t know it from the coverage this morning in some newspapers, despite their having changed their front pages overnight.
You’ll remember that both the previous ‘debates’ – the Paxman interviews with Miliband and Cameron on March 26 and the seven-way leaders’ debate on April 2 – were reported with heavy emphasis on the polling results about who ‘won’ and who made the best impression on voters.
After the leaders’ debate in April, the Sun newspaper ran a front page story claiming Ed Miliband had blown his election chances by failing to top the polls in the seven-way chatter-fest. The Telegraph ran ‘Miliband flops as outsiders shine’ on its front page, emphasising the poll results, as did the Times, the Guardian and the Independent.
So today’s lack of interest in the polls makes for a rather dramatic contrast.
It’s also worth noting that the poll not only shows Miliband ahead of his fellow debtors, but a general swing in his favour against prime minister David Cameron, (who did not take part in the debate). In a straight contest between Miliband and Cameron, 45 per cent said they would vote for Miliband as prime minister, against 40 percent for Cameron.
Aside for the sins of omission, there are those of commission. An Ipsos Mori poll yesterday taken before the debate which had Labour ahead with 35 per cent was written up in the Evening Standard as ‘Miliband poll blow’.
Focus on these imperfect measurements can be trivial, misleading and a way to avoid discussion of ideas. When it comes to debates, polls are plagued with hazy stupidities (how can one ‘win’ a debate with no formal motion or vote?) and often amount to little more than a measurement of impressions, reducing political argument into a contest between performing seals.
That said, if the media insists on judging debates by poll results, they ought to be consistent. And the only poll on last night’s debate, conducted by a respected polling company, says Miliband smashed it.
Adam Barnett is a staff writer at Left Foot Forward. Follow MediaWatch on Twitter
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19 Responses to “Post-debate polls lead the news agenda – unless Ed Miliband wins”
Leon Wolfeson
In fact, the whole issue of any conditionality was very controversial art the time, as you as usual ignore the whole issue of your beloved austerity ending so many jobs, and you chant the old myths about the poor, when the vast majority of people on JSA are so for short periods.
Moreover, denying more young people, the disabled etc. benefits wasn’t the idea.
Your ideas come from the current government, which spends far more punishing the poor than it does paying them.
JAMES MCGIBBON
I have not given ideas yet. I was just mentioning the consensus that apparantly happened and I think it a good consensus. I have no problem helping the elderly and disabled but where are the poor in Britain nowadays? I do remember the poor during the 50/60s. The old poor of those times have two or three cars and extentions to their former council houses thanks to Wilson, Heath,Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown & Cameron. You like the poor Leon, it gives you something to exist on.
Leon Wolfeson
So you’re in hardcore poverty denial.
As you spout off nonsense – I favour a basic income, which abolishes low-level poverty entirely. The poverty fan is you.
JAMES MCGIBBON
I do not see a any poverty around the working class area where I live. Just two three car families building extentions onto their former council houses. I do not use a car myself just public transport. However there is real poverty in Africa and South America. People in Britain are dying because they are over fed.
Guest
You prove my post true, of course.
You’re happy to slowly kill the poor British, who you hate so much.
Kill, kill, kill, your policies – as you talk about a few rich people overeating.
And I see, you’re a MP and use a chauffeur paid for by the taxpayer.