Obsessive focus on poll results is quietly shelved when Labour is ahead
A snap Survation poll for the Mirror newspaper has found that 35 per cent of respondents said Ed Miliband ‘won’ last night’s BBC debate, giving him a clear victory over his rival party leaders.
Who do you think “won” the debate? Survation for @DailyMirror pic.twitter.com/enDDIhTVwu
— Survation. (@Survation) April 16, 2015
But you wouldn’t know it from the coverage this morning in some newspapers, despite their having changed their front pages overnight.
You’ll remember that both the previous ‘debates’ – the Paxman interviews with Miliband and Cameron on March 26 and the seven-way leaders’ debate on April 2 – were reported with heavy emphasis on the polling results about who ‘won’ and who made the best impression on voters.
After the leaders’ debate in April, the Sun newspaper ran a front page story claiming Ed Miliband had blown his election chances by failing to top the polls in the seven-way chatter-fest. The Telegraph ran ‘Miliband flops as outsiders shine’ on its front page, emphasising the poll results, as did the Times, the Guardian and the Independent.
So today’s lack of interest in the polls makes for a rather dramatic contrast.
It’s also worth noting that the poll not only shows Miliband ahead of his fellow debtors, but a general swing in his favour against prime minister David Cameron, (who did not take part in the debate). In a straight contest between Miliband and Cameron, 45 per cent said they would vote for Miliband as prime minister, against 40 percent for Cameron.
Aside for the sins of omission, there are those of commission. An Ipsos Mori poll yesterday taken before the debate which had Labour ahead with 35 per cent was written up in the Evening Standard as ‘Miliband poll blow’.
Focus on these imperfect measurements can be trivial, misleading and a way to avoid discussion of ideas. When it comes to debates, polls are plagued with hazy stupidities (how can one ‘win’ a debate with no formal motion or vote?) and often amount to little more than a measurement of impressions, reducing political argument into a contest between performing seals.
That said, if the media insists on judging debates by poll results, they ought to be consistent. And the only poll on last night’s debate, conducted by a respected polling company, says Miliband smashed it.
Adam Barnett is a staff writer at Left Foot Forward. Follow MediaWatch on Twitter
19 Responses to “Post-debate polls lead the news agenda – unless Ed Miliband wins”
littleoddsandpieces
LABOUR HAVE ALREADY LOST
THE TORIES HAVE WON
326 MPs is the minimum threshold for a party to form a UK parliament.
Yougov predicts
277 labour
264 Tories
28 Lib Dems
Means none of these parties can form a UK parliament.
The Tories are obliged by the rules to stay in government in this severe hung parliament in what is called a caretaker government.
So Miliband cannot rule, even though Labour has gained marginally more seats than Labour.
Labour constantly says it will not form a coalition with the SNP, due to win 53 out of the 59 seats in Scotland.
But if SNP win 53 out of 59 seats, than is most of the 40 Scottish Labour seats gone.
277 minus 40
What if Plaid Cymru wins against the around 29 Labour seats in Wales?
If Plaid Cymru wins against 8 Tories, 3 Lib Dems and 29 Labour seats in Wales, you get the start of a different kind of politics in the UK.
But here comes another math, if the 75 per cent non-voter came out and voted different on Thursday 7 May.
Because the non-voters had a landslide victory, with some voting areas having up to 50,000 more non-voters than the around 15,000 votes that won either Tory, Lib Dem or Labour seats throughout the UK.
THE ONLY WAY TO KEEP A DEMOCRACY AND STOP THE COMING DICTATORSHIP OF A SITTING CARETAKER GOVERNMENT OR A TORY / LABOUR COALITION
Vote different:
113 TUSC England, a few in Scotland and some in Wales
53 SNP
Half or more of Wales’ seats – Plaid Cymru
12 or more CLASS WAR
Double dole and pension
13 National Health Action party
(voting out Prime Minister Cameron and Health Minister Jeremy Lefroy and Stafford Tory MP)
10 The Left Unity Party
Ban sanctions
10 Socialist GB
1 Green is in Brighton Pavilions voting area.
But there are 3 voting areas in Brighton.
Brighton Kemptown – Socialist GB candidate
Brighton and Hove – TUSC candidate
In fact a Socialist GB candidate is running against Ms Lucas MP The Greens, in Brighton Pavilions voting area.
The Greens ran away from the policies that cared less about the poor from babes to grannies, and a living wage.
RESULT?
400 MP majority UK parliament in a group of parties.
Rules are a group of parties forming a UK parliament can equally negotiate between each other and not only with Labour.
Maintaining a democracy by having MPs on the opposition benches in the House of Commons in the UK parliament, of a minority group of Tories and Lib Dems.
HOW POOR VOTER NOW OUTNUMBERS ALL OTHER VOTERS /
HOW ENSURE REGISTERED TO VOTE
http://www.anastasia-england.me.uk
Little Ted
labour were talking about interns working for nothing the other day and how bad they are, yet this site who not so long ago was asking for people to work for nothing didnt report on it. I wonder why ?
Leon Wolfeson
And he’s going to lose all the ground with today’s hard move right, no benefits for anyone until they’ve worked 2 years, etc.
Paul Douglas
That’s not how caretaker governments work. As soon as there is a Leader confident they can form a government which will command the confidence of the house, the incumbent is obliged to resign and recommend the Queen invite that Leader to form a government.
JAMES MCGIBBON
The deal with Atlee and the woring class was about work and benefits when required. Not a lifetime on the dole courtesy of working people.