The IFS confirms it: the worst Tory cuts REALLY ARE still to come

The respected think tanks says a Conservative government would see a 'rollercoaster ride for public service spending'


The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has confirmed that under a future Conservative government the worst cuts are still to come.

In its analysis of yesterday’s budget, the IFS says that projected Tory cuts “of more than 5 per cent implied in each of 2016-17 and 2017-18 are twice the size of any year’s cuts over this parliament”.

Meanwhile the IFS says that there are “big differences between the parties” and that Labour “would be able to meet its fiscal targets with no cuts at all after 2015-16”.

Despite the chancellor’s announcement yesterday that he would ease up slightly on austerity in the next parliament, the IFS maintains that under a Conservative government Britain would see a “rollercoaster ride for public service spending” with the largest cuts to public services still to come.

And while average household incomes “have just about regained their pre-recession levels”, the IFS says that this “represents by far the slowest recovery in incomes in modern history”, adding that “having household incomes crawl back up above pre-recession levels six or seven years after the recession hit is no cause for celebration”.

As for the cost of living, average incomes among pensioners have risen, the IFS says, but among those of working age they have fallen. It adds that there have been “especially big falls for those in their 20s”.

Tellingly, despite the chancellor’s claims to be squeezing the rich the hardest, the IFS says that “looking only at changes implemented by the coalition the poorest have seen the biggest proportionate losses”.

It adds that the richest have been hit the hardest only when looking at “the period of the consolidation as a whole” (during Labour’s time in office), and that under the coalition “people on middle and upper middle incomes have been remarkably insulated from tax and benefit changes”.

James Bloodworth is the editor of Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter

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30 Responses to “The IFS confirms it: the worst Tory cuts REALLY ARE still to come”

  1. Mike Stallard

    That is twice the defence budget and about 2/3rd of the entire education budget. It is about half the social welfare budget.
    It is the amount which we paid this year to service our enormous debt which both parties have allowed to mount.
    Think what any government could do with £84,000,000,000! I leave it to your imagination.

  2. robertcp

    I confess that the IFS is right about people on middle and upper middle incomes. I am probably no worse off than in 2010.

  3. robertcp

    The rollercoaster cuts planned by the Tories do not sound like a good idea. Labour should stress this during the campaign.

  4. Leon Wolfeson

    Yes, I’m sure you’d like to imagine rolling in it.

    Meanwhile, for the financially literate, we’re facing deflation and the government is cutting spending. Which is idiotic, as the result of government borrowing to spend is…*drumroll* inflation.

  5. Leon Wolfeson

    But they also want the same cuts.

  6. Mason Dixon, Autistic

    Figure makes no sense. Explain please.

  7. robertcp

    Labour is promising to cut less. That cannot be called the same cuts.

  8. Leon Wolfeson

    Where? Let’s see the reference…

    Balls has signed onto this budget, I remind you.

  9. robertcp

    From the article above:

    Meanwhile the IFS says that there are “big differences between the
    parties” and that Labour “would be able to meet its fiscal targets with
    no cuts at all after 2015-16″.

    Can you read?

  10. Cole

    Doubtful. He seems to hate Labour too much.

  11. robertcp

    I agree. I am not sure if I agree with Labour’s approach but it is clearly different to the approach of the Tories.

  12. Guest

    It’s an unbacked claim. Something from the Labour party, you know, facts, would be helpful.

    So yes, unlike you. as you’re a good little self-claiming ATOS lover.

  13. Guest

    You’re “not sure” if identikit austerity, like that which you claim to love, is different from identikit austerity, as you’re lying for the crowd.

    Keep going, self-claiming ATOS supporter. It’s showing why Labour don’t deserve to win.

  14. Leon Wolfeson

    The IFS haven’t produced any credible evidence for the claim.

  15. robertcp

    I cannot remember what ATOS is but I probably disagree with it as it happens.

  16. robertcp

    Fine. Can you point to references that say the spending plans of Labour and the Tories are the same?

  17. Guest

    So after making a claim, you want me to look up your references.
    No, what’s “fine” is your attempt to claim my time. Like a police fine.

  18. Guest

    You can’t now “remember” what ATOS is…frankly, LMAO.

    No, you were very plain that under your logic, you are 100% a supporter of what the government does, and your moral-free attitude thus…

    (Has your account been hijacked or something?)

  19. robertcp

    I am not a 100% supporter of the coalition or the Labour Party, although I will be voting for the latter as the least bad option.

  20. Guest

    That’s a different issue entirely.
    And that still makes you an austerity lover, so…

  21. Godfrey Paul

    On the Today programme on Radio 4 this morning Balls said he would not reverse any of the major items in the Budget !!!

  22. robertcp

    Okay, I am an austerity lover. Whatever makes you happy!

  23. Joe Bloggs

    It’s often said that pensioners are well protected from tory austerity, and that Cameron wants/ needs the “grey vote”.
    However, one pensioner I am acquainted with, has been notified that his weekly pension is going to rise by a whole £1.09, for the year to April 2016.
    The battle with his greedy-filth energy company, and exorbitant charges from his foreign-owned water & sewage company goes on, and the extra £1.09 will surely help, I’m sure.

  24. Guest

    You have a very strange definition of “happy”. That is, not ignoring your posted views makes ME happy. Erm…

  25. Leon Wolfeson

    Exactly. He’s also a straightline austerity-loving neoliberal.

  26. littleoddsandpieces

    …As for the cost of living, average incomes among pensioners have risen, the IFS says, but among those of working age they have fallen. …


    Inflation for pensoners has gone up 8 per cent this year, whereas for all others only 0.5 per cent.

    And the working age now is up to 73 or even 76,
    where Universal Credit has started.

    The poorest have seen far more inflation, for all ages, as a percentage of their meage money, in food prices and energy bills.

    Am I serioously fed up of pensioner bashing and being told we are better off than other age groups, by politically motivated statistics.

    Why is Labour try to chase the mythical youth vote, when 4 million are not even registered to vote and least likely to vote.

    The flat rate state pension will massively reduce the state pension for those with state pension payout age from next year, 2016.

    For huge numbers, they will get nil state pension for life.

    See why under:

    Just when Universal Credit hits Pension Credit,
    as does the Flat Rate State Pension in and from 2016.

    The over 60s are within working poor well beyond retiring age, because the state pension is the lowest of all rich nations bar poor Mexico.

    The state pension is payable if remain in work or not.

    The IFS puts the state pension at 4 per cent lowest income.

    Most people only with state pension as pension provision in old age, are also low waged and probably more likely part time.

    Part time workers will also get hit by the permanent sanctions of Universal Credit, for failing to do the miracle of moving to full time hours.

    Why permanent?

    Because UC will call Hardship Payments a recoverable loan with direct deductions from future benefit or wages.

    When most increases in employment have been in low waged
    part time jobs.

    And in amongst the low waged are those
    who are out of the welfare state and state pension system,
    because they are below the
    Lower Earnings Level
    to get automatic National Insurance credits.

    Labour alone cannot form a majority government, even with SNP and Plaid Cymru as partners.

    To get the 323 MP threshold and beyond, more parties are needed that would be natural allies and help the poor,
    that Labour has entirely lost the votes in the UK.

    Trade Unionist and Socialsit Coalition (TUSC)

    Class War

    Mebyon Kernow of Cornwall

    In Tory and Lib Dem marginals, especially in England.
    Cornwall has single figure marginals.

    If trade unions funded the ads (I’ve found cheap and effective ways to do this in front of Jobcentres, food banks and in the high street, to suggest?) for these parties now, then the nil media coverage and nil coverage in left leaning blogs, would be overtturned.

  27. Samuel Hooper

    Two things:

    1. Since Ed Balls has revealed he would not reverse ANY of George Osborne’s Budget 2015 spending decisions, when can conservatives expect an apology from the Labour Party and its supporters for all those accusations of cruelty, callousness and selfishness over the past 5 years?

    2. If anything, George Osborne’s timid budget shows the extent to which British conservatism is still on the back foot since Thatcher’s heyday. Under David Cameron, the Tories are doing hardly anything to actually shrink the size of the state, and yet they feel compelled to grovel and apologise for each small gesture they make toward fiscal responsibility:

    If those on the left are unhappy, they should take heart – we on the right are just as frustrated.

  28. Leon Wolfeson

    You’re frustrated at what? The wide choice of parties to vote for? Cameron is well to the right of Thatcher. Your problem is that austerity, your right’s chosen weapon, is expensive.

    Your “Fiscal responsibility” is why the debt’s rising as it is in the first place.

    And Labour are not leftist, they’re another option for the right!

  29. Mike Stallard

    Grovelling apology for the typo! 54 billion is the figure.
    Please do note how it compared with education (50%), defence, transport and welfare.
    My argument still holds despite the typo!

  30. Leon Wolfeson

    What, that inflation is too high for you on 0.3%? How much deflation do we need, again?

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