There is widespread support for another referendum; now Labour must persuade the electorate that May is not a proxy vote for independence
Scottish Labour faces a double bombshell this morning, with new polling not only suggesting near wipe-out for the party in May, but showing that a majority of people now support independence.
The data, collected by Survation for the Labour-supporting Daily Record newspaper, has found that with undecideds and won’t says taken out, 51 per cent of people in Scotland would vote for independence compared to 49 per cent who would reject such a proposition. This is the first poll to put independence in the lead since September’s referendum.
More worryingly still for the pro-union parties, 60 per cent of respondents expressed support for another referendum being held within the next 10 years, despite declarations in September that the last vote had settled the issue ‘for a generation’.
Meanwhile, in the week that Ed Miliband ruled out any coalition agreement with the SNP following the election, today’s poll puts the SNP on 47 per cent, up two percentage points from Survation’s poll last month. Labour are on 26 per cent (-1), the Conservatives are up one point to 16 per cent, and the Lib Dems are on four per cent (down one point) with no changes on the seven per cent of voters who plan to vote for another party.
According to the calculations, if replicated across the country, the SNP would secure 53 of Scotland’s 59 seats with Labour slumped to just five MPs north of the border and the Lib Dems losing all but one of its seats.
Seeking to move attention away from independence and towards the General Election, Scottish Labour’s lead Jim Murphy has once again responded to this poll by telling voters that a vote for any party but Labour will lead to a Conservative government. He concludes:
“There is only one party across the UK that is big enough to stop the Tories being the largest party and that’s Labour.
“Now that it’s 100 per cent certain that there won’t be a Labour and SNP coalition there’s only one way to beat the Tories.
“A vote for anyone other than Scottish Labour risks the Tories being the biggest party and David Cameron returning to Downing Street by accident.
“That would be a terrible outcome for Scotland but it’s what could happen if this poll is repeated on election day.”
Unsurprisingly, the SNP have welcomed the results. The party’s leader at Westminster Angus Robertson has concluded it ‘shows that support to give Scotland a strong voice at Westminster by returning a team of SNP MPs to stand up for Scottish interests remains very high’. He continued:
“By contrast, Labour continue to pay the price for being on the same side of so many arguments as the Tories, including their joint commitment to imposing even more spending cuts.
“We take nothing for granted and will work extremely hard to win people’s trust on May 7 so that we can deliver jobs and growth in place of Westminster cuts, power for Scotland and the non-renewal of useless and expensive Trident nuclear weapons.”
Speaking exclusively to Left Foot Forward, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University has noted that for Labour to gain a recovery would require three things:
- Showing to voters in Scotland that Westminster is relevant to their lives;
- Persuading voters that May is not a proxy vote for or against independence; and
- Gaining traction for its vision for a fairer society to counteract Nicola Sturgeon’s campaigning efforts in this direction.
Whether or not this can all be achieved between now and polling day remains to be seen.
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on TwitterA
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127 Responses to “A double bombshell for Scottish Labour”
Jim Bennett
Leon, thank you for replying.
In relation to your claims that many of the young activists I mentioned being in other parties. Well, numbers speak for themselves. The SNP has 100 000 members. Labour about 9000 (although they refuse to publish figures) and the Greens around 5000 members. The SSP etc have a few hundred, maybe a thousand. Like them or loathe them, the momentum is with the SNP, the third largest political party in the UK.
Re polls: I specifically pointed out the original article’s error in citing one poll alone. That’s why I cited the latest poll of polls – check either the Guardian or Elections Etc out yourself.
Leon Wolfeson
The core SNP leadership generally may be, but their followers are from across the spectrum.
Also, “independence”, borders, is a typically right wing value. I also won’t excuse some of the propaganda Salmond has used, or his friendship with Murdoch.
And er – you might make YOUR decisions based on little knowledge. There’s a reason I’ve been trashing Labour for years, as a left winger. However, in this case they actually do support the Union. I support the Labour manifesto…of 1945.
And if you have evidence of criminal activity, take it to the police.
Richard Honey
That is such a stupid comment. Labour under Miliband is distinctly to the left of Blair. Sure they may have some common agreement – reducing the deficit for example, but how they do that is vastly different. Labour will reverse the Health and Social Care Act, abolish the bedroom tax, stop Job Centre sanctions targeting – the thrust is about creating a fair and equal society rather than the Tories – the trade union of hedge fund managers. And believe me Ed is serious about this, even if his language isn’t always as ‘left’ as some would like. All I know is that in my city a Labour government will make a huge difference to the lives of people suffering under the bedroom tax and increasingly resorting to food banks, young people, disabled people. Look, if you’re out to bring down the capitalist state or some such then of course all other parties can seem the same to you, but for those of us who have to live in the realities of England then full blooded socialism is currently not a real option. The Greens are currently on 5% so a pure ‘radical political agenda’ doesn’t have a lot of traction outside the mainly middle class left/liberal constituency. The SNP are currently a left social democratic party having shed the Tartan Tory mantle, but they live in a very different environment. Try taking to some of the people I do on the doorstep and you’ll soon realise why. If it were simply a case of offering ‘leadership’ and people would follow then I suspect that approach will suffer the same fate as the myriad of far left Trot parties of the past. Of course I’d far rather Labour was say against the stupid Trident, and showed more ambition and anger in it’s approach. I can’t really speak for Scotland. Certainly Labour have been timid and complacent there to say the least. But I’m living where I do and all I know is I want to get shot of this dreadful coalition government. Apart from the maverick Gisela Stewart, no one is remotely thinking of a Labour Tory coalition.
Leon Wolfeson
PoP is still only useful for trends. See their methodology!
And the smaller parties are, as I said, the “clean” ones – the SNP is a melting pot of views from across the spectrum, with only dislike of the British as a core value.
(Sorry, but there it is)
Leon Wolfeson
What complete nonsense.
Labour are straight-line neoliberals.
The SNP have some socialists, but are hardly socialist as a party.
They only look similar because your viewpoint is so far away!