A double bombshell for Scottish Labour

There is widespread support for another referendum; now Labour must persuade the electorate that May is not a proxy vote for independence


Scottish Labour faces a double bombshell this morning, with new polling not only suggesting near wipe-out for the party in May, but showing that a majority of people now support independence.

The data, collected by Survation for the Labour-supporting Daily Record newspaper, has found that with undecideds and won’t says taken out, 51 per cent of people in Scotland would vote for independence compared to 49 per cent who would reject such a proposition. This is the first poll to put independence in the lead since September’s referendum.

More worryingly still for the pro-union parties, 60 per cent of respondents expressed support for another referendum being held within the next 10 years, despite declarations in September that the last vote had settled the issue ‘for a generation’.

Meanwhile, in the week that Ed Miliband ruled out any coalition agreement with the SNP following the election, today’s poll puts the SNP on 47 per cent, up two percentage points from Survation’s poll last month. Labour are on 26 per cent (-1), the Conservatives are up one point to 16 per cent, and the Lib Dems are on four per cent (down one point) with no changes on the seven per cent of voters who plan to vote for another party.

According to the calculations, if replicated across the country, the SNP would secure 53 of Scotland’s 59 seats with Labour slumped to just five MPs north of the border and the Lib Dems losing all but one of its seats.

Seeking to move attention away from independence and towards the General Election, Scottish Labour’s lead Jim Murphy has once again responded to this poll by telling voters that a vote for any party but Labour will lead to a Conservative government. He concludes:

“There is only one party across the UK that is big enough to stop the Tories being the largest party and that’s Labour.

“Now that it’s 100 per cent certain that there won’t be a Labour and SNP coalition there’s only one way to beat the Tories.

“A vote for anyone other than Scottish Labour risks the Tories being the biggest party and David Cameron returning to Downing Street by accident.

“That would be a terrible outcome for Scotland but it’s what could happen if this poll is repeated on election day.”

Unsurprisingly, the SNP have welcomed the results. The party’s leader at Westminster Angus Robertson has concluded it ‘shows that support to give Scotland a strong voice at Westminster by returning a team of SNP MPs to stand up for Scottish interests remains very high’. He continued:

“By contrast, Labour continue to pay the price for being on the same side of so many arguments as the Tories, including their joint commitment to imposing even more spending cuts.

“We take nothing for granted and will work extremely hard to win people’s trust on May 7 so that we can deliver jobs and growth in place of Westminster cuts, power for Scotland and the non-renewal of useless and expensive Trident nuclear weapons.”

Speaking exclusively to Left Foot Forward, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University has noted that for Labour to gain a recovery would require three things:

  1. Showing to voters in Scotland that Westminster is relevant to their lives;
  2. Persuading voters that May is not a proxy vote for or against independence; and
  3. Gaining traction for its vision for a fairer society to counteract Nicola Sturgeon’s campaigning efforts in this direction.

Whether or not this can all be achieved between now and polling day remains to be seen.

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter

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127 Responses to “A double bombshell for Scottish Labour”

  1. Guest

    The SNP is a broad church of separatism.

    You keep saying the British are rotten right wingers blah blah.
    If you were serious, you’d be arguing for electoral reform and not separatism.

  2. Guest

    Oh, you’re a #Truthisnonsense man.

    Yea, those ignorant peons of Britain, as you use the same argument the UKIP do, and with the same kind of isolationist views. Scotland is not a nation, you reject the Acts of Union as usual, as you call the British abusive, personally.

    And because there’s no point without voting reform, which people who are not simply seperatist isolationists support. To fix things, rather than to run away. I support MMP, you support leaving.

  3. Leon Wolfeson


    The real problem at this stage is FPTP.

  4. stelsewhere

    Uk is dead , BURY IT! .. We will all live on this island happily and peacefully while doing business separately and helping each other out where ever we can .. no doubt there will still be a “British” Military but one that is more connected to Europe and beyond making the World a safer place rather than the UK acting like USA’s puppy dog and being dragged into ILLEGAL WARS which sees our young people return in body bags .. SCUM UNIONISTS ! no better than ISIS or the Taliban !

  5. Guest

    That’s right, Scotland is already independent in your world.

    And why are you lying? You’re just a liar.

  6. Guest

    Murder all the British, you say. Can’t allow peace and happiness or help, right.

    As you randomly hate on America, etc.
    You keep saying the British are like IS or the Taliban, when you’re the one here calling for genocide. Wanting those body bags.

  7. Guest

    Great Leader stuff, check.

    Never works, of course, if they get into unchallenged power.

  8. Gary Scott

    I dislike characterising people as trolls but I note that you have decided to misquote me and have either not read or not understood my post. If you have not been in Scotland over the past few years you would not have been subjected to what was possibly the longest political campaign in history. It simply wasn’t covered outside Scotland until the last week or two – understandably. From a position of no knowledge you are opining on the opinions of others who are giving you a narrative without information. Take this with you: Accept nothing, question everything. That MUST include your own party if you have one. Do your own research, read the manifestos – if you disagree with something at least know why! Good Luck.

  9. Gary Scott

    Oh dear, my earlier reply was with the thought you hadn’t understood. From this remark I see you have an agenda, want to move the thread to something else and have resorted to name calling. If you are not a troll then stop, take a look at what you have posted and decide whether that is the way you wish to be perceived.

  10. Carol Murphy

    I don’t “keep saying” it, it’s a fact….look at the state the UK is in under the unionists right now! I think you mean independence, don’t worry, it’s coming!

  11. Carol Murphy

    What exactly have I lied about? Do elucidate. Of-course, you can’t; you are an immature little prick who knows virtually nothing about real politics…. now piss off and give everyone peace, there’s a good boy.

  12. Carol Murphy

    As I stated before….you silly wee boy, go away and give people peace! Your hysterical hyperbole is out of place here.

  13. stelsewhere

    pmsl hahaha .. “murder all the British” ??? lol .. “hate America”???? hahaha .. “calling for genocide”??? hahaha … your delusions definitely require medical intervention lol hahaha .. OI ! NUTTER .. HAVE A DIME BAR 😉

  14. Guest

    You evidently don’t, as you go ahead with it. Quoting magic now, I see, as you talk about how those outside your Promised Land cannot comment.

    As you lie about coverage, as you scream that because I’m not of the True Race I can’t know anything, ever. I am questioning you, and that’s why you’re lashing out.

    I don’t, unlike you, have a party. And I know full-well why I oppose your right wing value of seperatism. Borders only serve the right!

  15. Guest

    Yes, it’s called not being a separatist. So sorry I’m not yellow.

    How dare I disagree with your Holy Cause, as you scream that only troll don’t agree with you and your alies, who believe that the average Britssh person is an idiot, worse than Genghis Khan, etc.

  16. Guest

    That’s right, to you the British are children, you must silence the British for your “peace”, to impose barriers against the British even online, as you call 10% of your hype “hysterical” and “hyperbole”.

    No free speech near you, no alternate thinking to the Holy Cause of Borders.

  17. Guest

    Yes, do feed yourself.

    And yes, your posts, your issues, as you talk about yourself – then go right into the far right wing chant that disagreeing with your totalitarian, social darwinist views is mental illness.

    The British, to you, are now also mentally ill. Right.

  18. Guest

    So you, ask false questions, demand to control what I do and spew insults at yourself in your mirror.

    “Silence” you scream,”I can’t handle people who don’t hate every last British person as I do”.

    You keep denying Britain exists, as ever, that everyone living here is dead. Ah, you’re a Zombie Fetishist. Must be it.

  19. Guest

    Yes, you’ll ignore the will of the people and launch your coup anyway, I get it, as you whine that Britain is far, far too democratic and peaceful.

    Your view of the British as evil really speaks of your fear of the Other, like any other hard right nationalist.

  20. Guest

    PS, you seem to forget you came here to attack people for daring not to hate the British, and now you want to purge this discussion. Funny that, Censor Murphy.

  21. stelsewhere


  22. Carol Murphy

    I think you need to take your meds! Seriously!!!

  23. Guest

    You seriously push the same old far right line that anyone who isn’t with you and in this case your hardline Scottish nationalism is mentally ill – a good old fashioned social darwinist, totalitarian line.


    Step up there with the BNP on that one!

  24. Carol Murphy

    pmsl…you are just TOO easy!!! rofl rofl rofl 😉

  25. Guest

    Yack it up, as you talk about your issues with those not on your far right nationalist side.

  26. Tom Donald

    What happened to Leon Wolfeson? Now all of his crazy posts are credited to “Guest”. It seems he may have actually read back the nonsense and disowned it… Not a bad move there Leon!
    However, to get to the more important point, the SNP has on average almost two thousand enthusiastic members per constituency in Scotland, and already we are canvassing, en masse, every night. Labour on the other hand, are canvassing only in one Glasgow constituency, by bussing in their paltry numbers from across the city. It seems that Labour is finished in Scotland, FINISHED. That’s what you get for your Blair and your Brown.
    Tough, eh Leon?

  27. tassiescot

    Some people just dont get it Scotland is Scottish , England is Britain and British ,when i applied for an Australian passport it lists Scottish as a nationality

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