19 per cent swing to SNP in Labour held seats

But 49 per cent would prefer Ed Miliband as prime minister compared to 29 per cent for David Cameron

 

Labour is heading for a dramatic reversal in fortunes in Scotland, according to new polling out this evening by ComRes for ITV News.

ComRes surveyed voting opinion in the 40 seats Labour held in Scotland before Parliament was dissolved and recorded a 19 percentage point swing from Labour to the SNP.

Applied uniformly, this would see the SNP take 28 of Labour’s seat north of the border at the General Election. In 2010 Labour increased its share of the vote in Scotland by 2.5 per cent.

The full results in the 40 seats, with changes from the 2010 election are:

  • SNP on 43 per cent (+24.1 points)
  • Labour on 37 per cent (-14.3 points)
  • Conservatives on 13 per cent (-0.5 point)
  • Lib Dems on 2 per cent (-11.8 points)
  • UKIP on 2 per cent (+1.5 points)
  • Greens on 2 per cent (+1.2 points)
  • Other parties on 1.2 per cent (+0.8 points)

Asked about what the SNP’s approach should be in the event of a hung parliament, voters in these seats lean more towards supporting Labour than the Conservatives.

41 per cent would prefer there to be no formal agreement with any party, with 21 per cent supporting the idea of the SNP backing a minority Labour government and 21 per cent supporting a full SNP-Labour coalition. However those supporting independence for Scotland are noticeably more likely than opponents to want the SNP to enter into an agreement with Labour.

Meanwhile with Labour needing urgently to woo back previous Labour voters who supported independence in September’s referendum, this poll finds that 81 per cent of ‘yes’ voters saying they will vote SNP, compared to 8 per cent of ‘no’ voters. The poll also finds that 30 per cent of those who voted Labour in 2010 in these 40 seats intend to vote SNP next month.

Of those planning to vote SNP, 56 per cent say it is to secure an independent Scotland, with 35 per cent saying Labour no longer represented people like them. 30 per cent refer to broken promises over devolution as the reason for their support for the SNP.

The only chink of hope for Labour is that asked who they would prefer as prime minister, 49 per cent say Ed Miliband compared to 29 per cent who say David Cameron.

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter

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