Labour’s mixed standing across the nations

A Labour/ SNP deal of some description could possibly give Labour an overall majority


A third of voters in Scotland trust Labour less as a result of their campaigning with the Conservatives on the independence referendum, according to new data.

The polling conducted by Survation for the SNP found that just over 31 per cent of voters north of the border said that they are less likely to trust Scottish Labour as a result. 14 per cent said that they trust Labour more whilst 50 per cent said that it made no difference.

The unwelcome news will cause further anxieties for Labour 100 days before polling day, with an election expert predicting a meltdown for the party in Scotland.

In his analysis for Sky News, Professor Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University predicts that the SNP are on course to gain 53 seats based on a new poll of polls.

Based on his predictions, a Labour/SNP deal of some description could potentially provide an overall majority in the House of Commons of 28 seats.

In Wales meanwhile, Labour look set to make modest but not spectacular gains at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.

According to the latest Welsh Political Barometer, a polling collaboration between  ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University and YouGov, Welsh Labour are on 37 per cent of the vote, up one per cent since the last time this poll was conducted in December.

The Conservative position is unchanged at 23 per cent, UKIP are down two points to 16 per cent, and Plaid are on ten per cent, down one point.

The Greens have increased their share of the vote by three points to eight per cent, whilst the Lib Dems are languishing on just six per cent of the vote, a one per cent increase since December. Other parties are down one point to one per cent.

Based on this scenario, Labour would gain just two seats – Cardiff North from the Conservatives and Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives, however, would offset this loss by taking Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats.

More worryingly still however, with Ed Miliband once again putting the NHS at the centre of Labour’s campaign today, polling from ComRes  finds that voters trust David Cameron marginally more than Ed Miliband to provide the funding needed for the NHS.

According to the survey, 29 per cent trust David Cameron most, compared to 28 per cent who say the same about the Labour leader.

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter

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15 Responses to “Labour’s mixed standing across the nations”

  1. treborc1

    Who can blame them, I bet a lot of labour voters will be looking and thinking maybe if labour can do deal with the Tories then maybe they are planing a coalition with them.

  2. AlanGiles

    There is little difference between the real Conservatives and the pseudo Tories like Jim Murphy, Tristram Hunt, Rachel Reeves etc so I am not at all surprised many people think better the devil you know. Cameron and Osborne are far from good but are Miliband and especially the gurning Balls with his puerile hand gestures any better?

  3. madasafish

    The SNP are doing their best to eliminate the Labour Party in Scotland.
    Ed Miliband says he would form an alliance with the SNP to form a UK Government.

    Anyone notice the lack of joined up thinking?

  4. swat

    A word of warning: it would be unwise of Labour to take the reins of power if it were clear that it was not the wish of the British People.
    So, any Coalitions would have to take into acoount the wishes of the British People, and that doesn’t necessarily mean a cobbled Coalition of 4 or more Parties just to stop the Tories from continuing.
    Its not going to be a question of numbers of seats to get a majority in the Commons. The worst would be a Govt which the country clearly did not want. Same with the Tories. In 2010 clearly the tide had turned and the Country did not want a Labour Govt to continue.

  5. Guest

    No surprise you want to stop democracy from happening.

  6. Guest

    Yes, your lack of said thinking is pretty obvious.

    There’s no SNP death squads, for starters.

  7. Guest

    Rather, a lot of the left plain won’t vote for either bunch of Austerity-lovers.

    No surprise you are into personal insults rather than looking at policy, as you praise your Satan’s Devils or whatever your religion of neoliberalism says is good this week with roast baby.

    (If you haven’t realised I’ve been mocking you…)

  8. Roy White

    Labour’s mixed standing across the nations?

    Labour doesn’t even stand in Northern Ireland. Its sister party, the SDLP, arent a bad bunch, but we really need a party neutral on Irish Unity so that both unionists and nationalists feel comfortable with it. Its also strongly pro-life. Abortion is illegal in NI and women here have to travel to England, at their own expense, for a termination. Surely a local Labour party, affiliated to UK Labour (& ideally Irish Labour too) should be able to stand at elections in NI on an inclusive, progressive, centre-left platform

  9. robertcp

    If a coalition has a majority of votes then that is the wish of the people.

  10. redteddy

    The idea that Labour will only have 4 seats left is ludicrous. This is taken from one poll that, other polls are suggesting that Labour could get 20 seat, or even more. What worries me about Labour is its commitment to austerity.

  11. AlanGiles

    “No surprise you are into personal insults rather than looking at policy,
    as you praise your Satan’s Devils or whatever your religion of
    neoliberalism says is good this week with roast baby.”

    Obviously into personal insults yourself – and of the most melodramatic and puerile kind

  12. littleoddsandpieces

    Labour does not offer me any state pension, that the Lib Dems Pension Minister, Mr Steve Webb, is denying huge numbers of men and women on and from 6 April next year, even after decades in work.

    See why under my petition, in my WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT section, at:

    The only party that offers me a state pension, and a good one, are The Greens.

    With The Greens’ unique policy of a Full Citizen State Pension.

    Irregardless of our National Insurance contribution / credit history
    now destroyed by the merger of NI and the additional top up to the state pension
    called State Earnings Related Pension Scheme, that became the State Second Pension from 2002.

    People with a retirement age on and from 6 April next year, are already getting formal government
    flat rate state pension forecasts as low as £55 per week with no top ups, because they were opted out for most of the 35 years of National Insurance contribution / credit needed by the flat rate pension.

    Today you get the full £113.10 state pension, plus the top up of however many years you paid SERPs / S2P that could be a full amount around £165 per week, pro rata for a minimum of 1 year NI record and in full from 30 years NI record.

    From next year, you get nil state pension for all kinds of reasons, leaving huge numbers of men and women with no food money in old age for life. A NI record of 10 years or less gives no state pension for the first time.

    Tell me, why would the poorest people, with no other income in old age, or a tiny works pension that can be as low as £60 per week, vote for any party but The Greens, when no other party anywhere near power in Westminster help to heat and eat (other than the SNP for the Scots).

    The Greens offer me til retirement age, a full Citizen Income.

    That would end all the waste on rising billions costs of state and private contract benefit admin and Jobcentres, that don’t find people jobs but sanction them many months into starvation (when it takes a month to starve to death), when most don’t find work even though their lives depend upon it. Too busy hunting for food out of wheelie bins. The money spent on feeding the starving is REDUCING BY THE BILLIONS each year.

    Why would anyone vote for parties that continue the contemptuous cruelty in Jobcentres and assessment centre alike, with latter too often causing heart attacks after interviews lasting as long as criminal interrogations in police stations (but with more rights in law for alleged criminals than the none for benefit claimants).

    For Jobcentres with many hours long compulsory attendance with no toilet provision, unlike worker and criminal alike. Denying even incontinent disabled old access to that human right. No animal would be treated like that.

    The rich today, berate welfare reform and leaving the poor to starve (sometimes to death, but this is hidden from official statistics) in such newspaper of the wealthy as The Times, who rightly call it as entirely preventable impoverishment in the 6th richest nation on earth.

    So why aren’t The Greens putting these unique policies on billboards in England and Wales and Labour held areas of Scotland, with less than 100 days to the general election?

  13. Paul Wilson

    Why is a site calling itself LEFT FOOT FORWARD even mentioning the Labour party? Labour is a right wing neo liberal party that abandoned any pretext of being remotely left wing when Blair took over. The reason that Labour will get hammered in Scotland is because Scotland now has a savvy electorate, one who has seen through all the New Labour/Red Tory bull filled with career politicians who’s only thoughts and aims are how to get as much in expense claims as they can.One only need look at Murphy the man who spent over nine years at University yet never gained a degree and who has claimed over £1 MILLION in said expenses.

  14. uglyfatbloke

    Redteddy – I think it’s a poll of polls that was being referred to, but all the same I think you’re right) and there may well be 20 Labour MPs from Scotland after the GE. OTH, the gnats seem likely to beat all the Scottish glib-dumb MPs apart from Orkney and Sheltand, Even there there seems to be a modest but growing level of doubt among Lib-Dem activists. There’s still 90-odd days to the election and who knows what may delevop, but an outcome of 1 Lib, 20 Labour and 38 SNP seats does n’t strike me as unlikely.

  15. Keith M

    Labour needs vision and some heavies from the past – nye be an, Barbara castle,Keir hardie, William Morris.

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