Labour’s mixed standing across the nations

A Labour/ SNP deal of some description could possibly give Labour an overall majority


A third of voters in Scotland trust Labour less as a result of their campaigning with the Conservatives on the independence referendum, according to new data.

The polling conducted by Survation for the SNP found that just over 31 per cent of voters north of the border said that they are less likely to trust Scottish Labour as a result. 14 per cent said that they trust Labour more whilst 50 per cent said that it made no difference.

The unwelcome news will cause further anxieties for Labour 100 days before polling day, with an election expert predicting a meltdown for the party in Scotland.

In his analysis for Sky News, Professor Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University predicts that the SNP are on course to gain 53 seats based on a new poll of polls.

Based on his predictions, a Labour/SNP deal of some description could potentially provide an overall majority in the House of Commons of 28 seats.

In Wales meanwhile, Labour look set to make modest but not spectacular gains at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.

According to the latest Welsh Political Barometer, a polling collaboration between  ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University and YouGov, Welsh Labour are on 37 per cent of the vote, up one per cent since the last time this poll was conducted in December.

The Conservative position is unchanged at 23 per cent, UKIP are down two points to 16 per cent, and Plaid are on ten per cent, down one point.

The Greens have increased their share of the vote by three points to eight per cent, whilst the Lib Dems are languishing on just six per cent of the vote, a one per cent increase since December. Other parties are down one point to one per cent.

Based on this scenario, Labour would gain just two seats – Cardiff North from the Conservatives and Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives, however, would offset this loss by taking Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats.

More worryingly still however, with Ed Miliband once again putting the NHS at the centre of Labour’s campaign today, polling from ComRes  finds that voters trust David Cameron marginally more than Ed Miliband to provide the funding needed for the NHS.

According to the survey, 29 per cent trust David Cameron most, compared to 28 per cent who say the same about the Labour leader.

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter

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