Conservatives polling ahead of Labour for the first time since 2011

Most people see healthcare as more important than the economy when voting


For the first time since September 2011, the Conservatives have moved ahead of Labour in the monthly telephone survey conducted by ComRes for The Independent.

The Tories have moved up two points since last month and are now on 31 per cent, while Labour have moved down two points to 30 per cent. UKIP have moved up one point to 17 per cent, the Lib Dems down four points to eight per cent and the Greens up two points to seven per cent.

According to ComRes, three in five of the people surveyed (59 per cent) say that the parties’ policies on healthcare and the NHS will determine their vote more than their policies on the economy.

Only one in three (34 per cent) say that economic policies will be more important than health ones.

On NHS funding, people trust David Cameron about the same amount as Ed Miliband, with 29 per cent saying they trust Cameron to ensure the NHS has enough money and 28 per cent saying the same of the Labour leader.

ComRes interviewed 1,001 British adults between 23 and 25 January 205, weighting the data to ensure it was demographically representative.

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45 Responses to “Conservatives polling ahead of Labour for the first time since 2011”

  1. AlanGiles

    The problem for Labour is a lack of credibility both in it’s leader and would-be Chancellor. Yesterday Miliband announced he wanted to reduce university fees by £300 – great – but where it the money coming from?. He also wants more GPs and longer care visits – fewer and fewer medical students wish to go into general practice and again where is the money going to come from?. They will keep Trident, so no extra money in that direction. What WILL they cut,if they intend to reduce the deficit and go into surplus?. It all sounds like panic stations frankly.

  2. Kathryn

    Osbourne has borrowed more in 4 years than the labour party borrowed in 13. That’s appalling, even accounting for interest rates, etc.

    The real problem is how the eff are Labour not spinning this better?

  3. treborc1

    The eff in labour are fifteen people the right in labour and Progress are much more, so really the fact is labour are now a right wing party not a left and with Miliband we have one of the weakest leaders . The poor bloke even attacked the Unions when he needed every penny to run his election talk about useless.

  4. madasafish

    Labour are not spinning it better because they officially planned to borrow more. They have zero economic credibility .

    And in case you did not notice we have had the worst recession in the UK since 1929..

  5. Cole

    Which can hardly be blamed on Labour as the rest of the developed world had a recession too. Of course the Conservatives backed the overall Labour spending levels before 2008, which they conveniently firget.

  6. madasafish

    Hmm so the recession was not Labour’s fault… so the borrowing resulting from the recession and the austerity following are not the Tories’ fault.

    You can’t have it both ways – claiming Labour were not responsible for the recession but the Tories are for austerity…

  7. sarntcrip


  8. sarntcrip


  9. sarntcrip


  10. sarntcrip

    For the record, the following list are the policies Labour have announced for 2015 so far. Under absolutely no definition could this list be thought of as right wing. None. Is it perfect? Of course not. Do I wish they would go further? Of course I do. Will they stick to every one if they win in 2015? None of us can possibly know. Sadly, you still can’t get crystal balls on Amazon.

    But the list represents the progressive Labour party we’ve had for decades. Doubt them, push them, hold them to account, but if you want the Tories out and you live in a marginal seat, voting for anyone but Labour will get you exactly what you most fear. 5 more years of Cameron.

    -An £8 minimum wage

    -Fight for a living wage

    -Repeal Health and Social Care act

    -Repeal the Gagging law

    -Repeal the bedroom tax.

    -An end to inaccessible WCA centres

    -200,000 new homes pa by 2020

    -A mansion tax

    -A freeze on energy bills

    -Guaranteed jobs or training for young people out of work for a year or longer

    -A clampdown on exploitative landlords & more stable, secure rental contracts

    -25 hours of free childcare for 3 & 4 year olds

    -A clampdown on exploitative zero-hours contracts.GRANTED LABOUR MUSTSTOP SUPPORTING TORY BILLS IN PARLIAMENT

    -Integration of health and social care

    -Maximum 48 hour wait to see a GP

    -Mental health training for all NHS staff

    -A reformed WCA overseen by sick and disabled people

    -Penalties for every mistake Maximus make

    -ESA claimants out of the work prog

    -Reverse the 45p tax rate back to 50p



  11. madasafish

    Stop shouting: it’s rude.

  12. keeshond

    When I heard Gisela Stuart MP, on a programme for the BBC’s Democracy Day, say that there was nothing disadvantageous to Labour in the new rules for individual voter registration and that no one should have any trouble remembering their national Insurance number in order to do so, I realised just how complacent and out-of-touch so many Labour MPs have become.
    Most Conservatives are likely to have registered by the cutoff point before the election. Not so many Labour voters will have done so, if they are even aware of the new rules.
    Meanwhile, where are the new policies that could set Labour’s 100 days campaign alight? The party’s MPs haven’t much of a message anyway, but their supporters must despair of listening to so much of what they want to hear being articulated by the Greens.

  13. Guest

    No, it’s nothing to do with the leadership. It’s to do with the policy.

    Reducing tuition fees to 6k does absolutely nothing for most people, of course, as they still won’t be able to pay it off before it gets written off decades down the line.

    Your determination to keep up austerity and not allow borrowing is typical. Cut, you cry, cut the poor more, as you grab the knife.

  14. Guest

    Yes, your Coalition caused it, as you talk about your negative economic credibility. But wages are still way too high for you.

  15. Leon Wolfeson

    Because they’re also austerity fans and can’t thus say anything meaningful on it.

  16. Leon Wolfeson

    Very, very little indeed, right. They plan to have the overall benefit cap, they intend to apply UC and in-work conditionality, they plan full-out austerity, no talk about taxing or reversing many of the Tory slashes to the social welfare net, etc.

    Moreover, that’s a £8 *cap* on the minimum wage by the end of the Parliament. It’s an utterly unambitious house building target, and no commitment any of it will be council housing. “Integrating” NHS and social care without sufficient cash will be a disaster, forced minimum-wage labour for young people, tiny changes to renting which may well raise prices sharply and locks-in expectations of rises in rent well above housing benefit, reducing wages severely and creating perverse incentives to keep unemployment high and so on…

    …meanwhile, benefits reduce rapidly in value against inflation, especially housing benefit, and poverty rises. And they still push austerity.

  17. Leon Wolfeson

    Their conference was the last, best chance to energise people.

    They lead with a benefit freeze and refusal to allow borrowing for council house building.

  18. Leon Wolfeson

    …ComRes is one of the last to show a Conservative lead in at least one poll.

  19. Stormbringer

    Because of the unreformed election boundaries, the Tories would have to poll at least 4 points ahead just to have an even number of seats with Labour in the House-of-Commons.

    I think the smart money is still on a minority government, with the largest party probably being Labour but, personally, I think there is much about this general election that smacks of 1992.

    If there is a minority government then there will almost certainly be a second general election and that will suit the Tories, with their extra large campaign treasure chest, just fine.

  20. GrumpyOldTory


  21. Leon Wolfeson

    No, I don’t see any significant borrowing plans from Labour, and refusing to do anything at all about poverty but channelling a few prestige contracts to a few building firms for things which won’t show a return for decades…

    Remember, no borrowing from councils for housing.

  22. Leon Wolfeson

    /Still/ whining that the Tories got greedy on boundaries and lost it all?

    And no, there won’t be a second GE. Remember that little thing called the “Fixed Term Parliaments Act”? Yea, whoops for you!

    (I also think it’s a bad idea, but it’s the Tories passing it which is ironic)

  23. AlanGiles

    So anybody who is unconvinced by Miliband and Balls is, ipso-facto, a Tory?.

    Well then it seems a lot of Labour supporters from left to right then must be Tory. A couple of years ago it was the fact that the “bankers bonus” was going to be used ten times over on various projects.

    Now Miliband announces a wish list including several thousand more GPs within days of a report which says that less than 10% of medical students wish to become GPs. GThe only way of persuading them otherwise would be to pay them more than specialists, unless, of course Miliband and Balls think they could pay specialists less than GPs?

    Politicians – of all parties – let me add that to save you having another hissy fit and typing in capitals, just don’t think before they open their mouths. They think if they say something it can autommatically be done – for example Nick Clegg announcing last week he wanted “nil suicides”. How the hell do you stop people?. Even when it was illegal and punishable by imprisonment until 1961, people still tried and often succeeded in killing themselves.

    Most politicians have never had proper jobs and live in a fantasy world which is why only party sycophants believe the nonsense they come out with

  24. robertcp

    To be fair, planning to do what actually happened is quite credible.

  25. robertcp

    The problem is that Labour did not seem to know that something was very wrong with the financial system, for example, Fred the Shred was knighted! It is really depressing that Gordon Brown actually believed in a lot of the neo-liberal consensus.

  26. robertcp

    Quite right. Politics is usually about choosing the least bad option rather than whining because perfection does not exist.

  27. ForeignRedTory

    Perhaps the time has come to put the NHS in a European perspective.

    See the yellow on the left of the Map? That’s Britain – in the same league as Greece.

    Under the inspired leadership of David Cameron, the NHS now performs on par with Greece, Estonia, and Portugal – such a remarkable peformance, and I am sure that David will be PROUD to be in that position.

  28. Leon Wolfeson

    So people should endorse austerity and neoliberalism, and vote for attacking the poor still further? No.

    That’s called lacking morals.

  29. Guest

    “Well then it seems a lot of Labour supporters from left to right then must be Tory.”

    They are, in fact, in the place where the Tories were not so very long ago on policy.
    That’s why Labour are set at this trend to lose the election.

    Your blaming Labour leadership when the issue is Labour policy is an obvious ploy.

  30. Leon Wolfeson

    And your conclusion for action is?

  31. AlanGiles

    Give me strength!. Who influences Labour policy? Who ignores the bits of Conference they find inconvenient? : The LEADERSHIP

    Miliband is a weak leader, forever looking over his shoulder at the Blairites, too terrified to challenge them. Weak, weak, weak.

  32. robertcp

    You are entitled to your opinion.

  33. ForeignRedTory

    Say lots of nasty things about the PM, focussing how on his watch , the NHS has been a severe dissapointment, useless loss of life, tragic consequences, let us all down, what a sheer mediocrity he is compared to fill in the blank in Euroland, pound for pound the most lacklustre performer…. btw does NHSScotland fall under the SNP?
    Same medicine.

  34. uglyfatbloke

    The new parliament could abolish the fixed term legislation quite easily.

  35. Leon Wolfeson

    Okay. You do that then.

    I’ll keep working with others to change the voting system to PR.

  36. Leon Wolfeson

    Opinion? No, the effect of austerity is well documented.

  37. Leon Wolfeson

    Of course they *could*
    And the chance they’ll do that, if they have a fragile majority is…mm…let’s be polite and say slim.

  38. Leon Wolfeson

    I don’t give a flying fish who’s in the leader’s seat.

    I care about policy.
    They haven’t delivered on policy.

  39. Cole

    Nonsense. The challenge since 2008 is how do to deal with the crisis. Gordon Brown actually handled it pretty well; the coalition have not.

  40. Cole

    I probably agree. But the Tories have clearly made things much worse since 2010, using the crisis to shrink the state and privatise what’s left – for ideological reasons and to benefit their donors.

  41. robertcp

    I agree.

  42. robertcp

    Those are facts. The opinion bit is what we do about it. Vote for the least bad option or spoil your ballot paper.

  43. Leon Wolfeson

    Least bad? Greens, but I object to some other their other policies.

  44. robertcp

    I know that you disagree but I will be voting Labour in May. It is my opinion that a Labour government will be slightly better than a Conservative government. Voting Green would be the other option for me but my constituency is a Lab-Con marginal, so there is a risk of the Tory winning.

  45. Nicholas Poulcherios

    Labour did not cause the Economy crisis…The USA Banks did and drucked all Globaly down with them. Labour was in power then it does not mean they knew all the corruption in USA. Now on handling of the economy Labour -Gordon Brown did a n very good fiscal rescuing performance; curbed the crisis and PAIN for all of us. UNLIKE Thatcher who ruined all HOUSE owners and Share holders.What is more wicked she closed all Mental Hospitals promised CommunityPsychitricNurses and they have done nothing…she started the downfall and crisis of Mental Health because she could not stomach strong trade unions,and really never given the masses the people much thought or respect. The Tories are devious, rich, buy their ways methodically worming and strangling all others. They will destroy our democracy given another chance. They have purchased BBC, SKY,and News programmes,and we think it is an unbiased BBC,or SKY etc, but in actual fact its bought , planned and staged by Tory propaganda machine. They are a very sophisticated rich but also bought party. The party for the Aristocracy and Rich billionaires,that’s why this viscous war to preserve and sell us to Organisations and .Coms. No pride is left in most of them. Posters on Vans Buses Lamp posts;leaflets through the air.Most if NOT ALL our papers are owned or sold to Right wing Tories and Foreign Billionaires. The Head of BBC is Lord Patton I think ,the last Governor of HON KONG Conservative and he has no clue of Journalism, and cost us dearly with a fiasco of putting his pal of top who lasted one week,or two months and cost us a fortune paying for his incompetence with a golden Handshake. The Tory party is a bought party from top to bottom,and as such they sell them- selves just like a prostitute sells her body, no remorse no feelings no shame no guilt. We have to move people forward to want to vote. We must point out the civilised points of socialist views the satisfaction it gives ensuring everybody has a fair chance to succeed in life. That we all think and care for our fellow countrymen and the world freed from hunger,poverty and illiteracy.

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