The SNP go into Christmas backed by a record proportion of supporters.
The SNP go into Christmas backed by a record proportion of supporters
The SNP are celebrating an early Christmas present today with news that they now have a record breaking proportion of voters supporting them.
According to new polling conducted by Survation for the Daily Record, when asked how they would vote in next May’s General Election 48 per cent said the SNP, up 2 percentage points since November and up from the 20 per cent of the vote it secured in 2010.
Scottish Labour meanwhile remains on 24 per cent, down by 18 percentage points on their performance in 2010.
The Conservatives are down one point on their performance in November at 16 per cent, the Lib Dems are down one on 5 per cent whilst UKIP and the Greens are on 5 per cent and 1 per cent respectively.
According to the Electoral Calculus website, if replicated in May this would leave Labour loosing 37 seats, reduced to just four, whilst the SNP would land themselves 54 seats in the House of Commons, 48 more than they have at present. The Lib Dems would have just one seat north of the border.
Meanwhile following his election as Leader, Survation asked voters about what impact Jim Murphy would have had the helm of Scottish Labour. Whilst 14 per cent said that it would make them more likely to vote Labour, 18 per cent said it would make them less likely to do so. 57 per cent said it would make no difference at all.
A quarter of those polled said that Labour would be more successful in Scotland under Murphy’s leadership, compared to 16 per cent who didn’t think it would turn the party’s fortunes around.
Responding to the polling, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University commented:
“Murphy is not the magic bullet. It is going to require more than a new kid on the block – he has to persuade people that May is not a re-run of the referendum.”
The survey data will make for an uncomfortable Christmas for Labour. Already faced with a difficult electoral climate next May, the prospect looks ever more likely of Ed Miliband being kept in Downing Street thanks to the support of the SNP.
With Alex Salmond hinting heavily that SNP MPs might be prepared to drop the convention that stops them voting on English-only matters, a future Miliband administration risks tearing the country apart as English voters become increasingly incensed that Scottish MPs are imposing their agenda on the rest of the country.
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward