Labour’s headaches get worse

Labour would be forgiven for reaching for the paracetamol this morning.

Labour would be forgiven for reaching for the paracetamol this morning

The Labour Party is facing a further headache following new polling that has revealed that the SNP are now ahead of the party in voting intentions for both Holyrood and Westminster.

According to new data collected by Survation and commissioned by the SNP, asked how they would vote in the constituency vote for the Scottish Parliament, when the undecided are taken out, the SNP now lead Labour by 15 per cent, with the nationalists on 42 per cent (down 3 per cent on the 2011 election results) whilst Labour are on 27 per cent (down 5 per cent).

On the regional list vote, again, the SNP lead Labour with the Scots Nats on 37 per cent (-7 per cent), and Labour on 27 per cent (+1 per cent).

Labour will however be most concerned about the figures on voting intentions for Westminster where the SNP now lead Labour on 34 per cent (+14 per cent from 2010) whilst Labour are on 32 per cent (-10 per cent). This represents a 12 per cent swing from the SNP to Labour which George Eaton in the New Statesman has argued would be “deadly” for Ed Miliband if it were to be reflected in the election next year.

Interestingly, on Westminster voting intentions, the Conservatives north of the border, according to the poll, now stand on 18 per cent, up 1 per cent from 2010, a reflection of the good campaign that Ruth Davidson is widely believed to have had during the independence referendum as leader of the Scottish Conservatives.

It could be that this is a rogue poll, but none the less, a combination of the SNP’s membership  trebling since the independence referendum and the boost the party will undoubtedly get with Nicola Sturgeon taking the leadership in November now makes it look highly likely that the nationalists will successfully take some seats from Labour next May on the mantra of holding the UK parties ‘feet to the fire’ when it comes to further powers being devolved to Holyrood.

Given Labour’s continued reliance on its rump of Scottish Labour MPs, such news will have many at Labour HQ worried about the rapid erosion in its once heartland seats.

This is compounded by a similar pattern emerging in Wales where Roger Scully, Professor of Political Science in the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, has noted that Welsh Labour has seen a considerable decline in support over the past 18-24 months. As he has explained:

“In the four polls conducted in 2012, Labour’s general election vote share was always at or above 50 per cent. Both the last two have had it below 40 per cent.”

The polling comes following what was widely believed to have been a lacklustre performance from Ed Miliband in his speech to the party conference last week with the icing on the difficult to swallow cake being today’s YouGov poll putting the Conservatives ahead of Labour on UK wide voting intentions.

And for information, YouGov have also revealed that more people would want to go for a drink with Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, David Cameron, Nick Clegg and  Theresa May than Ed Miliband.

Labour would be forgiven for wanting to grab for the paracetamol this morning.

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81 Responses to “Labour’s headaches get worse”

  1. Mukkinese

    I notice many Tory central trolls make this place their home.

    Are they really so stupid as to think their propaganda will be swallowed by any other than the other Tory drones and forelock-tuggers?

  2. Thomtids

    Look, Mukinese….do you consider the chaos, mayhem and manslaughter at Mid Staffs hospital is a glowing testimonial for the NHS under Labour? Or is that your idea of how a system that causes the premature deaths of thousands of normal people is just what we need….euthanasia free at the point of need.

  3. Thomtids

    Labour are not going to secure a clear win. They have not obtained absolution for the financial meltdown in 2008′ yet. The main architects of that debacle are still around. Miliband really is perceived by the core working class vote as a complete loser.
    The Tories are beyond the pale. The LimpDumps might keep popular MPs but their numbers will be reduced to a single figure and of no effect in the creation of a functioning Parliamentary majority.
    There has to be individual winners and most of the would-be winners are so unpopular politically that this Election should be worth staying up for the results!

  4. osho

    it was not budget cuts that led to Mid Staff. Had Mid Staff been a private hospital, it would be facing financial ruin, with senior managers being charged.
    There is none as blind as those who refuse to see.

  5. osho

    Look, most people are not pure left or right. On some issues majority favour right wing policies (cut welfare fraud, stop illegal immigration) and on others they are left (NHS, basic safety net for the genuinely in need).
    It is this bipolar division that has created the current mess; instead of dealing with each issue on its merit, politicians and their advisers retreat into neat binary positions.
    Average Joe andJosephine are more intelligent than politicians give them credit for.
    BTW, whatever UKIP are, they are not Far Right.
    Basic rule of internet debate. The first person to shout Nazi/Far Right has lost the argument

  6. Redrose82

    And my response wasn’t to your post but to that of Selohesra.

  7. Alexsandr

    SNP dont vote on English matters (Good for them, that is honourable) so if milliband thinks he can govern with their help he will be in trouble getting his English legislation through the HoC. How will he deliver his core policies on the NHS, for example?

  8. Gazcon

    Perhaps they will feel drawn to the Labour candidate in the Heywood byelection, who said vote for her because she’s white?

  9. Leon Wolfeson

    Yes, the Bankers are still around. Why are you blaming Labour for it, except insofar as they didn’t take proper action against the Bankers – but no major country did.

  10. Thomtids

    Very simply put, the Scots Banks were used as the means of leveraging the currency through the device of derivative instruments coupled with the provision of PFI. Instead of it being printed by the Bank of England it was run through the private Banking system.
    The principal Banks effectively were caught out by their inability to keep the scam running through funding the borrowing repayments by more borrowing on the money-market. It was a classic scam that could only end in total financial meltdown which had to be re-financed by the tax-payer. The peripheral Bankers were simply bit- players on the side.
    Time to revoke the the vow of silence taken by Fred the Shred and Lord Myners and start to let the public know all about the massive Governmental manipulation that went on.
    And why Labour should never be let loose near the Public Finances ever again.

  11. Leon Wolfeson

    Never mind what you said makes no sense, and ignores the nature of a fiat currency, etc.

    The right wanted less controls, of course, as you frantically try and excuse your Bankers, as you talk about mythic vows and try and blame Labour for everything and remove democracy.

  12. Guest

    No, the problems at north staffs go back much further than that , to the early 1990,s Infact and that was under a Tory government so don’t be so quick to place the blame on Labour

  13. Guest

    ,says it all really.

  14. Guest

    Ed isn’t a bankster, so did not cause the banking crash, nor was he in charge of new labour at the time and he very definitely isn’t new labour now. The Tories were all for even lighter touch regulation at the time, why do you think they have erased their pre 2010 speeches for the WEB?

  15. Guest

    The name says it all.

  16. Guest

    Yes, you do refuse to see.

    And of course you’d blame the people who you’d told they’d be ruined if they dare spoke a word of it in public. While limited liability restricted your losses to what you hadn’t got out. Usual boardroom techniques.

    The issue is very much the NHS budget – it was grossly too low. It was only moderately low, and the recent disorganisation has smashed it’s results back brutally to allow you to cherry-pick services.

  17. Guest

    Vote UKIP, get someone who wasn’t even good enough to be a banker, get a disaster for the country.

  18. Guest

    No, that’s your excuse for trying to destroy debate about your views.
    UKIP have a lot of far right supporters, like you.

    I’m sure you want to cut lots of things – welfare, the NHS (only for you and your ideological friends), the poor, the Other…other people who happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

    I am not a fool. I will hold your views up to the light.

    If you complain, I am doing it right.

  19. madasafish

    A really original remark – I’ve had my name for 14 years so you might realise I’ve heard it all before..

  20. Thomtids

    All Currencies are Fiat today. There is still a political price to pay for printing money hence Briwn and Balls went for the mechanism of doing so through the private sector. Brown effectively disarmed the supervision infrastructure, encouraging reckless casino -style banking. But Brown was the Chancellor of the Exchequer or Prime Minister for the whole time through which the situation that occurred was put in place, activated, grown and, finally, destroyed the British Banking system.
    Labour did it, Mister!
    Democracy has been being stolen for many years by all the historic Parties.

  21. RolftheGanger

    Lord Ashcrofts exit poll – 27% of No voters would have voted Yes.
    Impact? A 70% Yes vote.
    So my estimate was slightly low.

    See the Scotsman’s findings on the two thirds demanding FFA

    The Union won a temporary reprieve. That is all.
    Give it three years – max.

  22. rollo_tommasi

    The fact is you were NEVER held any signifigant lead in all the 70+ commisioned polls. Even that rogue Youguv poll was within the margin of error. What happened to all your secret polls showing the YES campaign soaring lead? utter drivel.

    As for another referendum in 3 years its never going to happen mate. Just crumbs of hope offered to the nationalist ants to keep them interested and to keep that cash cow plodding on. The Quebec seperatists said exactly the same thing after losing by a far smaller margin. 27 years later its still not happened they are now almost completely politically dead in the water.

    Face facts you and the nats got well and truly humped.

  23. Leon Wolfeson

    No, you just don’t like democracy. There’s a difference.

    And yada yada your right wanted even less protection, and it was a global issue. There’s plenty to blame Labour for which they actually *did*, and of course you’re ignoring much of the deregulation happened under Thatcher.

  24. rtozier2011

    The New Statesman article is based on very poor arithmetic by Peter Kellner, who has said that the SNP would gain 19 Labour seats with a swing of 8%. This is untrue – to gain that many Labour seats they’d need a swing of 15%. On a 12% swing they’d gain 7.

  25. Thomtids

    Let’s deal with your bizarre series of “facts”.
    ‘Much of the deregulation happened under Thatcher”. It doesn’t much matter what regulations there are if you appoint a “Watchdog” that is kept under lock and key and slumbers whilst the behaviour it is there to prevent is permitted to run amok.
    “It was a global issue”. No it wasn’t, it was specifically the problem for those Countries financing their borrowing with fresh borrowing. Countries like Canada, which runs a sensible public financial policy, was unaffected.
    “You don’t like democracy”. It isn’t “democracy” for two loonies called Balls and Brown in cahoots with the American money Gurus to create an entirely false market in worthless financial instruments and fund unaffordable public expenditure that was not going to be voluntarily assumed by the population, ending up impoverishing our grandchildren.
    Democracy is the right to hold those responsible for that sort of behaviour to account.

  26. Leon Wolfeson

    You keep ignoring the fact it wasn’t just the UK, as you call for …what…. nuking London? Makes sense, from your perspective.

    Are you a gold bug? And right, you want to impoverish people *today*.

  27. Thomtids

    My own view, was that Europe was playing international financial warfare and the end-game was to suck a vast amount of money out of the International money market because China refused to turn her foreign earnings into Euros as well as Dollars.
    It was a game of Chicken that Brown and his mate Balls, and Europe, lost because they didn’t factor in that RBS would be so exposed to American debt. In the end Europe had to blink and ANB had to be saved by sacrificing RBS ( British money) in order to save the Euro.
    Nothing to do with Gold, that is so last Century. It’s now all about funding public sector debt.
    Seeing that China is effectively funding the IMF, I hope you like rice because that’s all we’re going to be fed by them in due course.

  28. Leon Wolfeson

    No, that’s YOUR plan for the people of this country, no more and no less. Rather than pay tax.

    (Your silly little inventions as to what happened, which is quite clear…)

  29. Leon Wolfeson

    They get to disrupt discussion.

  30. Tim Morrison

    Wee Millibland is not going to be forgiven easily by many in Scotland for making common cause with the Tories. Clips on YouTube showed him not understanding what voters were saying to him. The intervention of the Southern MPs on the Glasgow walk of shame at least added to the gaiety of nations. On the bright side, Johan Lamont at last can go where she a no one recognises her.

  31. excell5

    We really are in the doodoo. What can any of the top lot do about this? There is one mistake which remains theirs for the making: they have lost a huge swath to UKIP in England and to SNP in Scotland – so they desperately need to retain their remaining support. The mistake which will see it reduced is to try to out-UKIP UKIP on immigration. Nobody will believe their promises, recently arrived Britons will refuse to vote Labour, and people with principles will desert them, finally, for the only place left for them: the green party. So our recent line of geniuses in the Labour high command will have presided over a gigantic loss of votes to UKIP, SNP, and Greens. All this at a time when the tories have never looked more detestably rich and arrogant (how far do we need to go back to find anything worse?). It really is beginning to look as though Labour really HAS been infiltrated by tory 5th columnists.

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