UKIP are still on the march in Wales, according to new polling.
UKIP are still on the march in Wales, according to new polling
The figures, collected by ICM for BBC Wales, show that when questioned how they would vote in the next General Election, 14 per cent said UKIP, up from the 7 per cent the party recorded in the last BBC Wales/ICM poll published for St David’s Day.
The findings also put Labour on 38 per cent (down 4); the Conservatives on 23 per cent (down 1); the Liberal Democrats down 2 to 7 per cent and Plaid Cymru on 13 per cent, down 1.
According to Cardiff University’s Elections in Wales blog, if these figures were replicated universally across the country, they would find Labour picking up two seats to add to the 26 they won in Wales in 2010.
These seats would see the party take Cardiff North from the Conservatives and Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats.
The Conservatives would retain their current total of 8 seats, with the loss of Cardiff North compensated for by picking up Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats would hold just one of their current three seats in Ceredigion whilst Plaid Cymru would remain as they are on three seats.
Whilst the figures aren’t anywhere near close enough for UKIP to entertain ideas of picking up a seat in Wales, the blog nevertheless has a warning for the other parties that ‘UKIP support clearly is reaching the sort of levels where they might plausibly make a difference to who does win some seats’.
But worryingly for Ed Miliband, his Scottish problem seen during last week’s referendum seems to be being matched by an increasing problem in making the gains in Wales the party would be hoping for next year.
As Professor Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University explains on the blog:
“ICM’s findings reinforce the point, made previously on this blog, that Labour support in Wales has slipped considerably over the past 18-24 months. In the four polls conducted in 2012, Labour’s general election vote share was always at or above 50 per cent. Both the last two have had it below 40 per cent. Indeed, it is notable that while Labour across Britain as a whole is running generally well ahead of the 29.0 per cent vote share it won at the 2010 general election….in Wales Labour’s support level is now only 2 per cent points above that gained in 2010.
“Two years ago, Ed Miliband could have confidently looked forward to Wales delivering him several seat gains at the general election; now, Welsh Labour’s seat harvest looks likely to be much smaller. That is probably the most important single message to come out of the recent polls on general election voting intention here in Wales.”
In stark contrast to YouGov findings just last week which put support for independence at 17 per cent, the BBC/ICM findings carried out after Scotland’s vote finds support for Wales going it alone sitting at just 3 per cent.
49 per cent of respondents have called for more powers for Cardiff Bay; 26 per cent said the current powers the Assembly has are sufficient as they are; 2 per cent believe the Assembly should have fewer powers whilst 12 per cent believe the Assembly should be abolished outright.
6 per cent of those who replied to the survey either didn’t know or had views that didn’t match any of the options provided.
Declaring support for independence to be the lowest he’d ever seen, Professor Scully said of this bit of the poll:
“There has been a clear move towards supporting more powers, and some of the people who may have said ‘independence’ have gone in that direction.
“We’re getting close to a majority saying they want things to go further. There are also pretty low levels of support for abolition of the assembly – the extreme positions are losing out.”
Meanwhile the pressure on the UK parties to reform the controversial Barnett Formula which they pledged to keep in their famous vow to the people of Scotland will increase as a result of the poll’s findings on attitudes to funding Wales.
With the Holtham Commission of 2009 having concluded that Wales was under-funded using the formula to the tune of £300 million a year, the BBC ICM findings show 71 per cent of people in Wales believing that changes are needed “because Wales loses out” to Scotland.
Responding to the poll findings, Welsh First Minister, Carwyn Jones yesterday warned that the UK government’s response to Scotland’s vote could lead to the complete break-up of the Union within ten years.
Outlining his frustrations that David Cameron had decided that the issue of future powers across the UK should be dealt with through a Cabinet sub-committee rather than a UK wide convention involving all the devolved governments, Jones told BBC Wales Week In, Week Out programme:
“If they don’t get this right in future – you can see the Scots coming back, being unhappy.
“In order to avoid all this and to keep UK together we need to have proper constitution for next centuries to come and work out where powers will be.
“If that isn’t done my great fear will be that in 10 years time in Scotland we’ll be back with another referendum and the result may well be different. That’s the lesson the establishment need to learn.”
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward
160 Responses to “UKIP up and Labour continue to slide in Wales”
Phil Hove
Leon, you really need to check your facts: The first link you gave me regarding BBC ‘biased to the right’ was totally discredited all over the web: (In fact the guy received funding from the BBC to write it..lol):
http://cardiffstudentmedia.co.uk/gairrhydd/news/cardiff-school-of-journalism-accused-of-falsifying-statistics-for-national-report/
Look, I have tried to be polite with you, but really cannot waste further time trying to educate and point out the factual mistake you write, , (plus you insult me about Falklands War service etc earlier). Just accept the world no longer believes Labour and many in this country are absolutely furious with the enormous damage they have done to this Nation. Never ever again! Thank you. Goodbyye.
Leon Wolfeson
No, the correct usage of the word there is singular. And you don’t get I’m mocking you? Okay.
Ah, vouchers, a way for the rich to leech off the state and ensure that other forms of schools are chronically underfunded, which have been an utter disaster for educational funding in other countries. No, if the rich want private schools, they can pay for them.
(And they do and can…I’m not the sort of radical who wants to ban them or anything else silly like that, see the post on here…what…last week about that. Doesn’t mean they should get a subsidy for it within an expensive voucher system, and the record of voucher systems argues so very strongly against them!)
And the classroom educational ideology is bound up, intrinsically, in the funding system. You are trying to have a disorganised and extremely expensive (and of course, the poor have to pay for it) mess which serves only the rich well, rather than offering a decent baseline education.
Finland’s system, for instance, has a national curriculum which is a guideline rather than being mandatory in the same way it is state schools here, but they retain the same exams for all students at higher levels, ensuring that students will learn the same broad topics. That’s an example of actual flexibility within a system.
Oh, and “Nuance” is an excuse for sloppy wording in posts, no more. This is a text-based medium not a face-to-face one with i.e. non verbal side-channels of communication, if you mean it then type it. (And I will assume you mean what you espouse)
Leon Wolfeson
Right right. So, let’s see. I provided you with facts, you have frantically rejected them. This goes to show that you are an ideologue and it was a mistake (which I have corrected) to provide them, as you link to a random student forum rant.
You have been rude, and are now being the coward you are and running off because you can’t hold your own in debate, Argentinian. You demand I accept your propaganda that even moderate left wingers (Labour) are not acceptable. I get you’re an enemy of Britain and hate it’s democracy, thanks, and will not abide by it.
Of course you see an economy, council houses, living poor etc. as damage, why, you’re not making as much profit as you could! Go back to Argentina and stop attacking the UK financially!
Run, run!
Leon Wolfeson
Ah yes, so you oppose – Argentine Officer – decent education here, as you show you don’t understand trademarks in the West.
Phil Hove
What is this Argentine army officer doing in your reply? Are you off your head man? Logistics Officer? What you talking about….where do you invent these things. Please speak your fantasy drivel to someone else please.