UKIP are still on the march in Wales, according to new polling.
UKIP are still on the march in Wales, according to new polling
The figures, collected by ICM for BBC Wales, show that when questioned how they would vote in the next General Election, 14 per cent said UKIP, up from the 7 per cent the party recorded in the last BBC Wales/ICM poll published for St David’s Day.
The findings also put Labour on 38 per cent (down 4); the Conservatives on 23 per cent (down 1); the Liberal Democrats down 2 to 7 per cent and Plaid Cymru on 13 per cent, down 1.
According to Cardiff University’s Elections in Wales blog, if these figures were replicated universally across the country, they would find Labour picking up two seats to add to the 26 they won in Wales in 2010.
These seats would see the party take Cardiff North from the Conservatives and Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats.
The Conservatives would retain their current total of 8 seats, with the loss of Cardiff North compensated for by picking up Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats would hold just one of their current three seats in Ceredigion whilst Plaid Cymru would remain as they are on three seats.
Whilst the figures aren’t anywhere near close enough for UKIP to entertain ideas of picking up a seat in Wales, the blog nevertheless has a warning for the other parties that ‘UKIP support clearly is reaching the sort of levels where they might plausibly make a difference to who does win some seats’.
But worryingly for Ed Miliband, his Scottish problem seen during last week’s referendum seems to be being matched by an increasing problem in making the gains in Wales the party would be hoping for next year.
As Professor Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University explains on the blog:
“ICM’s findings reinforce the point, made previously on this blog, that Labour support in Wales has slipped considerably over the past 18-24 months. In the four polls conducted in 2012, Labour’s general election vote share was always at or above 50 per cent. Both the last two have had it below 40 per cent. Indeed, it is notable that while Labour across Britain as a whole is running generally well ahead of the 29.0 per cent vote share it won at the 2010 general election….in Wales Labour’s support level is now only 2 per cent points above that gained in 2010.
“Two years ago, Ed Miliband could have confidently looked forward to Wales delivering him several seat gains at the general election; now, Welsh Labour’s seat harvest looks likely to be much smaller. That is probably the most important single message to come out of the recent polls on general election voting intention here in Wales.”
In stark contrast to YouGov findings just last week which put support for independence at 17 per cent, the BBC/ICM findings carried out after Scotland’s vote finds support for Wales going it alone sitting at just 3 per cent.
49 per cent of respondents have called for more powers for Cardiff Bay; 26 per cent said the current powers the Assembly has are sufficient as they are; 2 per cent believe the Assembly should have fewer powers whilst 12 per cent believe the Assembly should be abolished outright.
6 per cent of those who replied to the survey either didn’t know or had views that didn’t match any of the options provided.
Declaring support for independence to be the lowest he’d ever seen, Professor Scully said of this bit of the poll:
“There has been a clear move towards supporting more powers, and some of the people who may have said ‘independence’ have gone in that direction.
“We’re getting close to a majority saying they want things to go further. There are also pretty low levels of support for abolition of the assembly – the extreme positions are losing out.”
Meanwhile the pressure on the UK parties to reform the controversial Barnett Formula which they pledged to keep in their famous vow to the people of Scotland will increase as a result of the poll’s findings on attitudes to funding Wales.
With the Holtham Commission of 2009 having concluded that Wales was under-funded using the formula to the tune of £300 million a year, the BBC ICM findings show 71 per cent of people in Wales believing that changes are needed “because Wales loses out” to Scotland.
Responding to the poll findings, Welsh First Minister, Carwyn Jones yesterday warned that the UK government’s response to Scotland’s vote could lead to the complete break-up of the Union within ten years.
Outlining his frustrations that David Cameron had decided that the issue of future powers across the UK should be dealt with through a Cabinet sub-committee rather than a UK wide convention involving all the devolved governments, Jones told BBC Wales Week In, Week Out programme:
“If they don’t get this right in future – you can see the Scots coming back, being unhappy.
“In order to avoid all this and to keep UK together we need to have proper constitution for next centuries to come and work out where powers will be.
“If that isn’t done my great fear will be that in 10 years time in Scotland we’ll be back with another referendum and the result may well be different. That’s the lesson the establishment need to learn.”
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward
160 Responses to “UKIP up and Labour continue to slide in Wales”
Diggery Whiggery
Wow, you’re full of assumptions.
The only party that’s been in control of Wales’ education system since devolution is Labour. No other party involved. I accept that education may well have already been in a poor state before that thanks to other parties, but I think Labour have had a enough time to turn the ship around don’t you? Instead they put their foot down and headed for the rocks.
As for Finland’s system, it’s not as great as all that.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/06/is-finland-a-choice-less-education-miracle/
Leon Wolfeson
Nope, I’m not making yours, as you link propaganda about the Finnish system, and talk about YOUR plans – No choice, no competition, no pressure, because most people won’t be able to have their kids educated, since they won’t have the cash.
The reality is the Swedish experiment with privately controlled schools has failed, that article is a puff-piece of whining and no more. He even admits that there’s plenty of choice in the system, but you didn’t even read that far! He’s just after getting a profit out of being able to set up schools there.
You have no idea about education, of course, preferring to drive the concept out in hyper-competitive environments which actively punish actual study rather than memorisation, and which encourages your sort of anti-economy behavior rather than helping Britain.
Labour and the Tories have both failed, by trying to hyper-manage schools and over-test. We need to move away from their failed system, not to double down on it as Gove has imposed onto schools, or to abolish free education as others here have called for.
It’s also telling what you haven’t been able to deny.
Phil Hove
You having a laugh!
BBC packed to rafters with highest paid ‘leftie’ public purse recipients in the land -.even then they attempt PAYE avoidance by trying to go self employed!
Not long now though, just like Labour is in terminal decline, BBC too has many chickens coming home to roost, eg:
Facilitating Pedophilia: Saville, Stuart Hall,Rolf Harris, DLT & co – a mini Labour Rotherham!
Gaza Bias.
EU Bias (maybe their EU millions in grants might have something to do with this?)
Stuffing Management with lefties from Guardian – (ex Minister James Parnel took on this year – Ian Katz etc).
Nearly 200k annually of poorest and immigrants clogging Magistrates Courts not paying Licence Fee!
Left Wing Bias in news, and Political programmes see www. biasedbbc. org
Staff Expenses through the roof!
etc etc etc
Just like Labour Indoctrination and spin only lasts till truth is out…..social media has changed things don.t you know!.
Diggery Whiggery
I’m not for a simple fee paying system, that’s your assumption.
I’m not for memorization either, that’s your assumption.
I’m for not assuming that there is a perfect system or methodology, because there isn’t one, just different ones and different opinions. Parents have different ideas of what’s best for their kids and that should be accommodated in a flexible education market that isn’t wedded to any particular ideology.
I personally have an open mind on education methods but you clearly do not and neither does the system in Wales. You used the Finnish system as the ideal and all I did was point out that there are others who think that it has its own problems i.e. they don’t have the same opinion as you.
However, you don’t accept conflicting opinions do you? Or if you do, they have to be from ‘experts” in education, because we all know that experts agree on what’s best right.
There’s the right way and then there’s just propaganda, eh comrade?
Phil Hove
Good point – like West Lothian Question – that is a Labour trademark is it not?