There's very little evidence of the 'magnetic pull' of our benefits system. But there is evidence which suggests the Prime Minister wants to win back disillusioned Tory voters who've been attracted by UKIP.
There’s very little evidence of the ‘magnetic pull’ of our benefits system. But there is evidence which suggests the Prime Minister wants to win back disillusioned Tory voters who’ve been attracted by UKIP
Another day, another announcement about tightening benefit rules for EU migrants.
Writing in the Telegraph today, David Cameron says the “magnetic pull” of UK benefits needs addressing so that people come to Britain for the right reasons.
Immigration should “put Britain first”, he writes, before setting out plans to ensure that EU migrants will be unable to claim benefits for more than three months unless they have “clear job prospects”.
It should be obvious by now that these sorts of announcements are about politics more than they are about money. It’s about the ongoing attempt to lure back disenchanted right-wingers who have been drawn to UKIP like wasps to a jam jar.
I say that because most migrants from the EU do not come to Britain to sign on, but to work. That isn’t conjecture; it’s what the statistics say. And this is what you would expect – who spends hundreds of pounds on a flight and uproots themselves from their home and family to claim a relatively small amount of money in another country?
But Britain has the ‘most generous welfare system in Europe’, I can hear you say. Well not according to the Economic and Social Research Council’s Centre for Population Change (CPC):
There are a number of other EU countries that are just as likely as Britain (if not more so) to exercise a ‘magnetic pull’ on migrants.
EU migrants cannot simply sign on to claim Jobseekers Allowance, either, but must pass a tough Habitual Residence Test set before they can make a claim.
And importantly, Britons are significantly more likely to claim benefits than EU migrants. According to a Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) report from 2011, 6.4 per cent of those claiming working aged benefits were non-UK nationals, meaning British nationals were two-and-a-half times more likely to be claiming working age benefits than non-UK nationals.
UK nationals are more likely to claim benefits than foreign migrants right across the board, as the Guardian reported last year (and as the graph from FullFact demonstrates):
“Of the 2 million net migrants to the UK from the eight eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004, just 13,000 people have claimed jobseeker’s allowance (JSA). This figure was not disputed by No 10.” – The Guardian, March 26 2013.
Last year a European Commission report concluded that there was no evidence of systematic or widespread benefit tourism by EU nationals migrating within the EU, including to the UK.
It’s fitting that Cameron should choose the Telegraph for today’s article. Last year the paper falsely claimed that there were over 600,000 unemployed EU migrants in the UK. However as this DWP report from last year demonstrated, the number of EU migrants claiming Jobseekers Allowance – the main UK unemployment benefit – in February 2013 was 60,100 – a tenth of the number described by the Telegraph as ‘unemployed’.
‘Unemployed’ also doesn’t automatically mean ‘claiming benefits’. A European Commission report from last year found that 84 per cent of non-active EU migrants in the UK were relatives of an economically active EU national, meaning they were almost certainly mainly being provided for by spouses, partners and parents (children over 15 and students are included in the figures).
Last year the Telegraph itself was unable to find a single migrant that had come to the UK with the specific intention of claiming benefits. It could only find those who has previously worked but who had signed on after losing their job. And why shouldn’t they do that? They’ve been paying into the system, after all – and that’s at least partly what the safety net is there for in the first place – to help those who’ve made a contribution when times get tough.
In reality there is very little evidence (none that I can find) of the ‘magnetic pull’ of our benefits system. There is quite a lot of evidence, though, which suggests the Prime Minister wants to win back former Tory voters who’ve been attracted by UKIP.
40 Responses to “Message to David Cameron: you have no evidence the benefit system acts as a ‘magnetic pull’”
Dave Roberts
In English please Leon.
exworking man
what the hell are you talking about,have you thought about seeing a doctor ,do not talk to me in riddles ,I think you are mistaking me for some one else
Leon Wolfeson
That is, your inability to understand it, as you’re a foreigner with little knowledge of the language…is Monarco nice at the moment?
Stop attacking the UK!
Leon Wolfeson
I’m not talking about your hell, the one you’re determined to force onto the British. And of course you think disagreement with you is a medical condition, typical of your far right – your view there is totalitarian and social darwinist.
I’m not using riddles, I’m using English. That you desperately try and wiggle out of what you said is sadly typical…
Just Visiting
A couple of comments James.
A) your graph shows Welfare costs vs GDP – it was misleading to use that as a measure of how generous a benefit system is for foreigners. It’s obvious: for example if country X were to state that foreigners can’t get benefits until they have lived there 10 years whereas in country Y it is 3 months: then country Y is more generous to foreigners no matter what the GDP ratio may be.
B) you say that EU migrants must pass a ‘tough Habitual Residence Test’.
But you did not say why it was ‘tough’.
According to the CAB – the test is rather simple and not tough- and indeed until only months ago was trivially easy!
Cab writes: “If you’re an EEA national who has come to the UK from abroad… you must satisfy the habitual residence test (HRT). ie show:
i) you have a legal right to live in the UK. This is called the right to reside, and
ii) you intend to settle and make it your home for the time being. This is known as habitual residence.”
(i) is covered says the CAB if “you’re looking for work and have registered as a jobseeker at Jobcentre Plus’
So that’s trivially easy.
But (ii) has been getting more difficult recently:
“From 1 January 2014 you will not be able to satisfy the conditions until you have been living here for at least three months”
So before that – you could claim immediately!
“Since 1 January 2014 your benefit may stop after six months of
jobseeking unless you can provide ‘compelling’ evidence that you have a
genuine chance of finding work.”
It only says ‘may stop’ – not ‘will stop’.
So prior to Jan 2014 – once on benefits, you could stay on indefinitely just as if a UK citizen.
And indeed, CAB says that those who started before then will continue now to receive benefts despite that change.
“Since 1 April 2014 if you’re an EEA national who is a jobseeker, or if
you’re the family member of an EEA jobseeker, regulations mean that you
will not be able to claim housing benefit even if you are receiving
income-based jobseeker’s allowance.”
Taken together – if you came here prior to Jan 2014: you would have got housing benefit and JSA too immediately.
What to do if you fail the tests above?
The CAB advise is a startling suggestion that will double the admin costs of your welfare – appeal and apply again even before your appeal has been heard!
“Make a new claim for the benefit
If you don’t satisfy the conditions of the HRT when you first claim
benefit you could make another claim for the benefit at a later date.
You can reapply for the benefit at the same time as challenging a
decision. In some cases you may be able to satisfy the conditions of the
HRT when you can show that you’ve been resident in the UK for just a
few weeks longer.
You don’t have to wait for the outcome of an appeal or for the
decision to be reconsidered before you re-apply for benefits. If you’re
told this is a reason why you can’t make a new claim, you should do so
anyway and seek specialist advice.”