Poll boost for Scots independence campaign

Support for Scottish independence has increased, according to a new poll.

Support for Scottish independence has increased, according to a new poll.

According to the survey, conducted following the publication of the blueprint for Scotland, findings collected by Ipsos Mori for STV show that of those certain to vote, 34 per cent indicated that they would vote yes – an increase of 3 per cent since September. Over the same period, the proportion rejecting independence fell by 2 per cent to 57 per cent.

The findings point also to a high turnout in the referendum due in September, with 79 per cent indicating that they are absolutely certain to vote.

Interestingly, the SNP government’s blueprint for independence seems to have had little discernable impact on the campaign, with 18 per cent of those questioned indicating that it will make them more likely to support independence, 20 per cent saying it will make them more likely to reject it, and 51 per cent saying the proposals will make no difference whatsoever.

Commenting on the findings, director at Ipsos MORI Mark Diffley said:

“Our latest poll for STV News will provide some encouragement for ‘Yes Scotland’ as we enter the most crucial part of the referendum campaign, as it is the first time we have recorded an increase in support for independence in nearly a year.

“However, it should be noted that the ‘No’ campaign retains a healthy lead and would be likely to win the referendum by a significant margin if it were held now. Time will tell whether this represents a short-term spike in support for independence in the aftermath of the White Paper or if we are seeing a more significant shift in attitudes.”

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4 Responses to “Poll boost for Scots independence campaign”

  1. swatnan

    Its still 2 to 1 against, and will stay that way.

  2. RolftheGanger

    The polls weight the findings according to Westminster GE norms.
    Whereas in Scotland, the SNP are the lead party, the Tories a minority, Labour a discredited second tier also ran.
    The media act as if push polling does not exist and give an incompetent opposition an easy run.
    Had situations been reversed and Lamont been in charge during the Grangemouth crisis, the media would have had no mercy in hounding Salmond for not showing face. But Lamont, the Scottish ‘leader’ was allowed to vanish subsurface and stay there till it Salmond puled Labour’s chestnuts form out of the fire.
    Labour continue to be car crash in slow motion and Milliband is a soft milksop character who has not got the capacity to turn the mess around. Best option is Scotland’s return to self government – and a fresh lot of Labour faces; once the party renews itself from scratch.

  3. uglyfatbloke

    Rolf is right to some extent, there does seem to be a methodological concern with poll weighting and so on. The concern should be that while the Yes vote is going up, it is only by very small increments, however the No vote is going down at a slightly faster rate. To what extent that’s simply a matter of more accurate assessment due to the pollsters getting better organised or just the sheer uselessness of Better Together is hard to say, but I’d expect that it’s a bit of both. Better Together is still well ahead; not by anything close to 2:1 but still a very solid lead. Whether that can be maintained without a fundamental shift in the approach of the campaign is very questionable. It’s not a question of dropping Darling – though he was not a good choice – but of presenting an attractive alternative and not relying on silly propositions – although I did like the one on Newsbiscuit ‘ Santa won’t deliver presents in an independent Scotland’.

  4. sarntcrip


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